Related papers: Dynamic Shrinkage Priors for Large Time-varying Pa…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are…

In this paper we study asymptotic properties of different data-augmentation-type Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms sampling from mixture models comprising discrete as well as continuous random variables. Of particular interest to us is…

MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

In dynamic Monte Carlo simulations, using for example the Metropolis dynamic, it is often required to simulate for long times and to simulate large systems. We present an overview of advanced algorithms to simulate for larger times and to…

Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…

Probabilistic model checking aims to prove whether a Markov decision process (MDP) satisfies a temporal logic specification. The underlying methods rely on an often unrealistic assumption that the MDP is precisely known. Consequently,…

We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…

Recent variational Bayes methods for geospatial regression, proposed as an alternative to computationally expensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, have leveraged Nearest Neighbor Gaussian processes (NNGP) to achieve scalability.…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

In this paper, new results in random matrix theory are derived which allow us to construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio when the shrinkage target is a random object. More specifically, the shrinkage…

In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…

In the gravitational-wave analysis of pulsar-timing-array datasets, parameter estimation is usually performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to explore posterior probability densities. We introduce an alternative procedure that…

We discuss a non-reversible, lifted Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for particle systems in which the direction of proposed displacements is changed deterministically. This algorithm sweeps through directions analogously to the…

We consider the problem of scalable sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian generalized linear mixed models on large datasets. Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics, coupled with smooth re-parameterizations of variance parameters, produces…

There has been an intense development on the estimation of a sparse regression coefficient vector in statistics, machine learning and related fields. In this paper, we focus on the Bayesian approach to this problem, where sparsity is…

In this paper we combine the non-linear filtering capabilities of particle filters with the transdimensional inference of the reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method for a data assimilation methodology over dynamic problems with…

Latent space models are popular for analyzing dynamic network data. We propose a variational approach to estimate the model parameters as well as the latent positions of the nodes in the network. The variational approach is much faster than…

In the era of Big Data, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which are currently essential for Bayesian estimation, face significant computational challenges owing to their sequential nature. To achieve a faster and more effective…

This paper studies the fundamental problem of learning deep generative models that consist of multiple layers of latent variables organized in top-down architectures. Such models have high expressivity and allow for learning hierarchical…

Recently-proposed particle MCMC methods provide a flexible way of performing Bayesian inference for parameters governing stochastic kinetic models defined as Markov (jump) processes (MJPs). Each iteration of the scheme requires an estimate…