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In this article, we propose a novel method for sampling potential functions based on noisy observation data of a finite number of observables in quantum canonical ensembles, which leads to the accurate sampling of a wide class of test…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Ziheng Chen , Zhennan Zhou

Stochastic and conditional simulation methods have been effective towards producing realistic realizations and simulations of spatial numerical models that share equal probability of occurrence. Application of these methods are valuable…

Stochastic process models for spatiotemporal data underlying random fields find substantial utility in a range of scientific disciplines. Subsequent to predictive inference on the values of the random field (or spatial surface indexed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Aritra Halder , Didong Li , Sudipto Banerjee

Downscaling aims to link the behaviour of the atmosphere at fine scales to properties measurable at coarser scales, and has the potential to provide high resolution information at a lower computational and storage cost than numerical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-05-19 Rachel Prudden , Niall Robinson , Peter Challenor , Richard Everson

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of extreme temperature patterns using emerging statistical machine learning techniques. Our research focuses on exploring and comparing the effectiveness of various statistical models for…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-27 Kameron B. Kinast , Ernest Fokoué

Classical assessments of trends in gridded temperature data perform independent evaluations across the grid, thus, ignoring spatial correlations in the trend estimates. In particular, this affects assessments of trend significance as…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-28 Ola Haug , Thordis L Thorarinsdottir , Sigrunn H Sørbye , Christian L E Franzke

Optimal design facilitates intelligent data collection. In this paper, we introduce a fully Bayesian design approach for spatial processes with complex covariance structures, like those typically exhibited in natural ecosystems. Coordinate…

We propose multivariate nonstationary Gaussian processes for jointly modeling multiple clinical variables, where the key parameters, length-scales, standard deviations and the correlations between the observed output, are all time…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Rui Meng , Braden Soper , Herbert Lee , Vincent X. Liu , John D. Greene , Priyadip Ray

We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-22 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini , Jeroen Wouters

A non-stationary spatial Gaussian random field (GRF) is described as the solution of an inhomogeneous stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), where the covariance structure of the GRF is controlled by the coefficients in the SPDE.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-11 Geir-Arne Fuglstad , Daniel Simpson , Finn Lindgren , Håvard Rue

With the widespread availability of satellite-based instruments, many geophysical processes are measured on a global scale and they often show strong nonstationarity in the covariance structure. In this paper we present a flexible class of…

Applications · Statistics 2009-01-27 Mikyoung Jun , Michael L. Stein

Spatial generalized linear mixed-effects models are popularly used to analyze spatially indexed univariate responses. However, with modern technology, it is common to observe vector-valued mixed-type responses, e.g., a combination of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Arghya Mukherjee , Arnab Hazra , Dootika Vats

In spite of the interest in and appeal of convolution-based approaches for nonstationary spatial modeling, off-the-shelf software for model fitting does not as of yet exist. Convolution-based models are highly flexible yet notoriously…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-07 Mark D. Risser , Catherine A. Calder

Estimating spatial extremes from sparse observational networks produces uncertain return level maps, but dense output from physics-based simulation models is often available as a complementary data source. We develop a two-stage frequentist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Brian N. White , Brian Blanton , Rick Luettich , Richard L. Smith

Remote sensing data have been widely used to study various geophysical processes. With the advances in remote-sensing technology, massive amount of remote sensing data are collected in space over time. Different satellite instruments…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-10 Pulong Ma , Emily L. Kang

Despite the widespread utilization of Gaussian process models for versatile nonparametric modeling, they exhibit limitations in effectively capturing abrupt changes in function smoothness and accommodating relationships with heteroscedastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-01 Taehee Lee , Jun S. Liu

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Soudeep Deb , Kaushik Jana

With continued advances in Geographic Information Systems and related computational technologies, statisticians are often required to analyze very large spatial datasets. This has generated substantial interest over the last decade, already…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-14 Lu Zhang , Abhirup Datta , Sudipto Banerjee

Max-stable processes are a common choice for modelling spatial extreme data as they arise naturally as the infinite-dimensional generalisation of multivariate extreme value theory. Statistical inference for such models is complicated by the…

We tackle limitations of ordinary differential equation-driven Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) models and their extensions that have recently be employed for epidemic nowcasting and forecasting. In particular, we deal with challenges…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-10 Angelos Alexopoulos , Paul Birrell , Daniela De Angelis