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We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-16 Hao Song , Tom Diethe , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

We study reinforcement learning for controlled diffusion processes with unbounded continuous state spaces, bounded continuous actions, and polynomially growing rewards: settings that arise naturally in finance, economics, and operations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Hanqing Jin , Renyuan Xu , Yanzhao Yang

A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is formulated for advection-dominated advective and diffusive evolutionary problems, based upon the Dynamic Likelihood (DLF) approach to filtering. The DLF was developed specifically for hyperbolic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-06-13 Johannes Krotz , Juan M. Restrepo , Jorge Ramirez

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-03 Diego Vergara , Sergio Hernández , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Felipe Jorquera

The application of distributed model predictive controllers (DMPC) for multi-agent systems (MASs) necessitates communication between agents, yet the consequence of communication data rates is typically overlooked. This work focuses on…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-08 Yujia Yang , Ye Wang , Chris Manzie , Ye Pu

Many consequential real-world systems, like wind fields and ocean currents, are dynamic and hard to model. Learning their governing dynamics remains a central challenge in scientific machine learning. Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Yujin Kim , Sarah Dean

Conditional diffusion probabilistic models can model the distribution of natural images and can generate diverse and realistic samples based on given conditions. However, oftentimes their results can be unrealistic with observable color…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Kangfu Mei , Nithin Gopalakrishnan Nair , Vishal M. Patel

Uncertainty quantification is essential for the reliable deployment of machine learning models to high-stakes application domains. Uncertainty quantification is all the more challenging when training distribution and test distribution are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Yaodong Yu , Stephen Bates , Yi Ma , Michael I. Jordan

We present a data-driven framework for reachability analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems that requires no explicit model. A denoising diffusion probabilistic model learns the time-evolving state distribution of a dynamical system from…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-02 Yanliang Huang , Peng Xie , Wenyuan Wu , Zhuoqi Zeng , Amr Alanwar

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga

Probabilistic methods have attracted much interest in fault detection design, but its need for complete distributional knowledge is seldomly fulfilled. This has spurred endeavors in distributionally robust fault detection (DRFD) design,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Chao Shang , Hao Ye , Dexian Huang , Steven X. Ding

Quantile regression, based on check loss, is a widely used inferential paradigm in Econometrics and Statistics. The conditional quantiles provide a robust alternative to classical conditional means, and also allow uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Anuj Tambwekar , Anirudh Maiya , Soma Dhavala , Snehanshu Saha

Weighting methods are essential tools for estimating causal effects in observational studies, with the goal of balancing pre-treatment covariates across treatment groups. Traditional approaches pursue this objective indirectly, for example,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Diptanil Santra , Guanhua Chen , Chan Park

Decision-making under uncertainty is often considered in two stages: predicting the unknown parameters, and then optimizing decisions based on predictions. While traditional prediction-focused learning (PFL) treats these two stages…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Haeun Jeon , Hyunglip Bae , Chanyeong Kim , Yongjae Lee , Woo Chang Kim

We propose a new data-driven method to learn the dynamics of an unknown hyperbolic system of conservation laws using deep neural networks. Inspired by classical methods in numerical conservation laws, we develop a new conservative form…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-29 Zhen Chen , Anne Gelb , Yoonsang Lee

The estimation of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density functions (PDF) is a fundamental practice in applied statistics. However, challenges often arise when dealing with data arranged in grouped intervals. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-25 Ejike R. Ugba , Jan Gertheiss

Continuous-time reinforcement learning offers an appealing formalism for describing control problems in which the passage of time is not naturally divided into discrete increments. Here we consider the problem of predicting the distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Harley Wiltzer , David Meger , Marc G. Bellemare

This paper studies optimal control problems of unknown linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances of uncertain distribution. Uncertainty about the stochastic disturbances is usually described via ambiguity sets of probability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-30 Guanru Pan , Timm Faulwasser

Turbulent flows play an important role in many scientific and technological design problems. Both Sub-Grid Scale (SGS) models in Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) based modeling will require turbulence…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-07-16 Minghan Chu