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Reliably characterizing the full conditional distribution of a multivariate response variable given a set of covariates is crucial for trustworthy decision-making. However, misspecified or miscalibrated multivariate models may yield a poor…
Usually in Latent Class Analysis (LCA), external predictors are taken to be cluster conditional probability predictors (LC models with covariates), and/or score conditional probability predictors (LC regression models). In such cases, their…
We develop a new method for multivariate scalar on multidimensional distribution regression. Traditional approaches typically analyze isolated univariate scalar outcomes or consider unidimensional distributional representations as…
We propose a data-driven portfolio selection model that integrates side information, conditional estimation and robustness using the framework of distributionally robust optimization. Conditioning on the observed side information, the…
Capital allocation is a procedure used to assess the risk contributions of individual risk components to the total risk of a portfolio. While the conditional tail expectation (CTE)-based capital allocation is arguably the most popular…
The minimization of some multivariate risk indicators may be used as an allocation method, as proposed in C\'enac et al. [6]. The aim of capital allocation is to choose a point in a simplex, according to a given criterion. In a previous…
Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…
Multimodal learning integrates diverse modalities but suffers from modality imbalance, where dominant modalities suppress weaker ones due to inconsistent convergence rates. Existing methods predominantly rely on static modulation or…
This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and…
Current reinforcement learning objectives for large-model reasoning primarily focus on maximizing expected rewards. This paradigm can lead to overfitting to dominant reward signals, while neglecting alternative yet valid reasoning…
Modern challenges of robustness, fairness, and decision-making in machine learning have led to the formulation of multi-distribution learning (MDL) frameworks in which a predictor is optimized across multiple distributions. We study the…
Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks…
We define and develop an approach for risk budgeting allocation - a risk diversification portfolio strategy - where risk is measured using a dynamic time-consistent risk measure. For this, we introduce a notion of dynamic risk contributions…
Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is arguably the most important tool for statisticians, and many methods have been developed to find the MLE. We present a new inequality involving posterior distributions of a latent variable that holds…
Maximum likelihood estimation is a common method of estimating the parameters of the probability distribution from a given sample. This paper aims to introduce the maximum likelihood estimation in the framework of sublinear expectation. We…
Human behavior in interactive settings is shaped not only by individual objectives but also by shared constraints with others, such as safety. Understanding how people allocate responsibility, i.e., how much one deviates from their desired…
This paper studies a sequential decision problem where payoff distributions are known and where the riskiness of payoffs matters. Equivalently, it studies sequential choice from a repeated set of independent lotteries. The decision-maker is…
We employ a parameter-free distribution estimation framework where estimators are random distributions and utilize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as a loss function. Wu and Vos [J. Statist. Plann. Inference 142 (2012) 1525-1536] show…
Evaluations of large language models (LLMs) suffer from instability, where small changes of random factors such as few-shot examples can lead to drastic fluctuations of scores and even model rankings. Moreover, different LLMs can have…
We consider the problem of distributionally robust multimodal machine learning. Existing approaches often rely on merging modalities on the feature level (early fusion) or heuristic uncertainty modeling, which downplays modality-aware…