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Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Emil Javurek , Stefan Feuerriegel

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are a powerful ensemble learning technique for modeling nonlinear regression functions. Although initially BART was proposed for predicting only continuous and binary response variables, over the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Enakshi Saha

This paper proposes a robust Bayesian accelerated failure time model for censored survival data. We develop a new family of life-time distributions using a scale mixture of the generalized gamma distributions, where we propose a novel super…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Yasuyuki Hamura , Takahiro Onizuka , Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The proportional hazards assumption in the commonly used Cox model for censored failure time data is often violated in scientific studies. Yang and Prentice (2005) proposed a novel semiparametric two-sample model that includes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-06 Guoqing Diao , Donglin Zeng , Song Yang

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) model has been garnering attention as a way to provide a clinically intuitive measure: the mean survival time. RMST models, which use methods based on pseudo time-to-event values and inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

Survival analysis is a widely used statistical framework for modeling time-to-event data under censoring. Classical methods, such as the Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) model, offer a semiparametric approach to estimating the effects of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-23 Yang Xu , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Martin Bladt , Jorge González Cázares

In population-based cohorts, disease diagnoses are typically censored by intervals as made during scheduled follow-up visits. The exact disease onset time is thus unknown, and in the presence of semi-competing risk of death, subjects may…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-25 Ariane Bercu , Agathe Guilloux , Cécile Proust-Lima , Hélène Jacqmin-Gadda

Density estimation is a classical problem in statistics and has received considerable attention when both the data has been fully observed and in the case of partially observed (censored) samples. In survival analysis or clinical trials, a…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-18 German A. Schnaidt Grez , Brani Vidakovic

The difference in restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a clinically meaningful measure to quantify treatment effect in randomized controlled trials, especially when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Several frequentist…

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Ismaël Castillo , Stéphanie van der Pas

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

We introduce a new survival tree method for censored failure time data that incorporates three key advancements over traditional approaches. First, we develop a more computationally efficient splitting procedure that effectively mitigates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Ruiwen Zhou , Ke Xie , Lei Liu , Zhichen Xu , Jimin Ding , Xiaogang Su

Decision trees are popular in survival analysis for their interpretability and ability to model complex relationships. Survival trees, which predict the timing of singular events using censored historical data, are typically built through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Antonio Consolo , Edoardo Amaldi , Emilio Carrizosa

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a fully Bayesian approach to modeling with ensembles of trees. BART can uncover complex regression functions with high dimensional regressors in a fairly automatic way and provide Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-11 Edward George , Prakash Laud , Brent Logan , Robert McCulloch , Rodney Sparapani

The goals in clinical and cohort studies often include evaluation of the association of a time-dependent binary treatment or exposure with a survival outcome. Recently, several impactful studies targeted the association between…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-24 Daniel Nevo , Tsuyoshi Hamada , Shuji Ogino , Molin Wang

Tree-based regression and classification has become a standard tool in modern data science. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) has in particular gained wide popularity due its flexibility in dealing with interactions and non-linear…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-13 Alan Inglis , Andrew Parnell , Catherine Hurley

We propose the interval censored recursive forests (ICRF) which is an iterative tree ensemble method for interval censored survival data. This nonparametric regression estimator makes the best use of censored information by iteratively…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-21 Hunyong Cho , Nicholas P. Jewell , Michael R. Kosorok

Semi-competing risks data arise when both non-terminal and terminal events are considered in a model. Such data with multiple events of interest are frequently encountered in medical research and clinical trials. In this framework, terminal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-21 Fatemeh Mahmoudi , Xuewen Lu

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann
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