Related papers: A Framework for Designing and Evaluating Solar Fla…
We develop a mixed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24-hour time window 0$\sim$24, 6$\sim$30, 12$\sim$36 and 24$\sim$48 hours ahead of time using 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours of…
Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed…
Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…
During a solar flare, it is believed that reconnection takes place in the corona followed by fast energy transport to the chromosphere. The resulting intense heating strongly disturbs the chromospheric structure, and induces complex…
Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections are interrelated phenomena that together are known as solar eruptive events. These are the main drivers of space weather and understanding their origins is a primary goal of Heliophysics. In this…
The explosion of space weather research since the early 1990s has been partly fueled by the unprecedented, uniform, and extended observations of solar disturbances from space and ground based instruments. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from…
Electricity is difficult to store, except at prohibitive cost, and therefore the balance between generation and load must be maintained at all times. Electricity is traditionally managed by anticipating demand and intermittent production…
Solar flares are large-scale releases of energy in the solar atmosphere, which are characterised by rapid changes in the hydrodynamic properties of plasma from the photosphere to the corona. Solar physicists have typically attempted to…
It is widely established that extreme space weather events associated with solar flares are capable of causing widespread technological damage. We develop a simple mathematical model to assess the economic losses arising from these…
Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success across various scientific domains, motivating our exploration of their potential in solar physics. In this paper, we present Solaris, the first foundation model for forecasting the…
Solar flares commonly have a hot onset precursor event" (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. Detecting this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission…
The prediction of solar flares is typically formulated as a binary classification task, distinguishing events as either Flare (FL) or No-Flare (NF) according to a specified threshold (for example, greater than or equal to C-class, M-class,…
The integration of renewable resources has increased in power generation as a means to reduce the fossil fuel usage and mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. However, renewables like solar energy are stochastic in nature due to…
MMitigating contrail-induced warming by re-routing flights around contrail-forming regions requires accurate and stable forecasts of the state of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Forecast stability (i.e., consistency between…
Current operational forecasts of solar eruptions are made by human experts using a combination of qualitative shape-based classification systems and historical data about flaring frequencies. In the past decade, there has been a great deal…
A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $\Gamma$. We considered $\Gamma$ are $\ge M$,…
Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools…
Understanding solar flares is critical for predicting space weather, as their activity shapes how the Sun influences Earth and its environment. The development of reliable forecasting methodologies of these events depends on robust flare…
As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally,…