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Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

As LLM-based judges become integral to industry applications, obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty estimates efficiently has become critical for production deployment. However, existing techniques, such as verbalized confidence and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Bhaktipriya Radharapu , Eshika Saxena , Kenneth Li , Chenxi Whitehouse , Adina Williams , Nicola Cancedda

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

LLM deployment in critical domains is currently impeded by persistent hallucinations--generating plausible but factually incorrect assertions. While scaling laws drove significant improvements in general capabilities, theoretical frameworks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Jiayun Wu , Jiashuo Liu , Zhiyuan Zeng , Tianyang Zhan , Tianle Cai , Wenhao Huang

The predictive quality of machine learning models is typically measured in terms of their (approximate) expected prediction accuracy or the so-called Area Under the Curve (AUC). Minimizing the reciprocals of these measures are the goals of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Hiva Ghanbari , Minhan Li , Katya Scheinberg

Calibration of neural networks is a topical problem that is becoming more and more important as neural networks increasingly underpin real-world applications. The problem is especially noticeable when using modern neural networks, for which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Ondrej Bohdal , Yongxin Yang , Timothy Hospedales

Medical Vision-Language Models (Med-VLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse medical imaging tasks by leveraging large-scale image-text pretraining. However, their confidence calibration is largely unexplored, and so…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Abhishek Basu , Fahad Shamshad , Ashshak Sharifdeen , Karthik Nandakumar , Muhammad Haris Khan

Estimated uncertainty by approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks are prone to miscalibration, which leads to overconfident predictions in critical tasks that have a clear asymmetric cost or significant losses. Here, we extend the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Biraja Ghoshal , Allan Tucker

Many evaluation metrics can be used to assess the performance of models in binary classification tasks. However, most of them are derived from a confusion matrix in a non-differentiable form, making it very difficult to generate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Doheon Han , Nuno Moniz , Nitesh V Chawla

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Recent advancements in Machine Learning (ML) have substantially improved its predictive and computational abilities, offering promising opportunities for surrogate modeling in scientific applications. By accurately approximating complex…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Zane Fink , Konstantinos Parasyris , Praneet Rathi , Giorgis Georgakoudis , Harshitha Menon , Peer-Timo Bremer

When adapting ICL with or without fine-tuning, we are curious about whether the instruction-tuned language model is able to achieve well-calibrated results without suffering from the problem of overconfidence (i.e., miscalibration)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Chengzu Li , Han Zhou , Goran Glavaš , Anna Korhonen , Ivan Vulić

Ranking models primarily focus on modeling the relative order of predictions while often neglecting the significance of the accuracy of their absolute values. However, accurate absolute values are essential for certain downstream tasks,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Yimeng Bai , Shunyu Zhang , Yang Zhang , Hu Liu , Wentian Bao , Enyun Yu , Fuli Feng , Wenwu Ou

As machine learning models continue to swiftly advance, calibrating their performance has become a major concern prior to practical and widespread implementation. Most existing calibration methods often negatively impact model accuracy due…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Yang Ba , Michelle V. Mancenido , Rong Pan

Delivering meaningful uncertainty estimates is essential for a successful deployment of machine learning models in the clinical practice. A central aspect of uncertainty quantification is the ability of a model to return predictions that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Adrian Galdran , Johan Verjans , Gustavo Carneiro , Miguel A. González Ballester

The accuracy of the information that can be extracted from electron diffraction patterns is often limited by the presence of optical distortions. Existing distortion characterization techniques typically require knowledge of the reciprocal…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made great strides in pushing the state-of-the-art in several challenging domains. Recent studies reveal that they are prone to making overconfident predictions. This greatly reduces the overall trust in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Vinith Kugathasan , Muhammad Haris Khan

In-Context Learning (ICL) allows Large Language Models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks with just a few examples, but their predictions often suffer from systematic biases, leading to unstable performance in classification. While calibration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Korel Gundem , Juncheng Dong , Dennis Zhang , Vahid Tarokh , Zhengling Qi

Learning against label noise is a vital topic to guarantee a reliable performance for deep neural networks. Recent research usually refers to dynamic noise modeling with model output probabilities and loss values, and then separates clean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Yingsong Huang , Bing Bai , Shengwei Zhao , Kun Bai , Fei Wang

Deep Learning methods are known to suffer from calibration issues: they typically produce over-confident estimates. These problems are exacerbated in the low data regime. Although the calibration of probabilistic models is well studied,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-30 Rahul Rahaman , Alexandre H. Thiery