Related papers: Cross-validation based adaptive sampling for Gauss…
Complex computer codes or models can often be run in a hierarchy of different levels of complexity ranging from the very basic to the sophisticated. The top levels in this hierarchy are typically expensive to run, which limits the number of…
In this paper we consider the problem of Gaussian process classifier (GPC) model selection with different Leave-One-Out (LOO) Cross Validation (CV) based optimization criteria and provide a practical algorithm using LOO predictive…
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…
We present a weighted version of Leave-One-Out (LOO) cross-validation for estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) when approximating an unknown function by a predictor that depends linearly on evaluations of the function over a finite…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…
Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…
Comparison of competing statistical models is an essential part of psychological research. From a Bayesian perspective, various approaches to model comparison and selection have been proposed in the literature. However, the applicability of…
Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but…
Many functions have approximately-known upper and/or lower bounds, potentially aiding the modeling of such functions. In this paper, we introduce Gaussian process models for functions where such bounds are (approximately) known. More…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…
Surrogate models have become ubiquitous in science and engineering for their capability of emulating expensive computer codes, necessary to model and investigate complex phenomena. Bayesian emulators based on Gaussian processes adequately…
The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is an effective technique for black-box optimization. However, its applicability is typically limited to moderate-budget problems due to the cubic complexity of fitting the Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.…
Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for optimizing an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In particular, the effectiveness of expected improvement (EI) has been demonstrated in a wide range of applications. However, theoretical…
Bayesian optimisation is an adaptive sampling strategy for constructing a Gaussian process surrogate to efficiently search for the global minimum of a black-box computational model. Gaussian processes have limited applicability in…
In recent decades, multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has surged in popularity for population inference. However, the validity of the estimates can depend on details of the model, and there is currently little research on…
Emulating the mapping between quantities of interest and their control parameters using surrogate models finds widespread application in engineering design, including in numerical optimization and uncertainty quantification. Gaussian…
Deterministic computer simulations are often used as a replacement for complex physical experiments. Although less expensive than physical experimentation, computer codes can still be time-consuming to run. An effective strategy for…
The Expected Improvement (EI) method, proposed by Jones et al. (1998), is a widely-used Bayesian optimization method, which makes use of a fitted Gaussian process model for efficient black-box optimization. However, one key drawback of EI…
Bayesian optimization (BO) has well-documented merits for optimizing black-box functions with an expensive evaluation cost. Such functions emerge in applications as diverse as hyperparameter tuning, drug discovery, and robotics. BO hinges…