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Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ludovico T. Giorgini

A definition of metastable states applicable to arbitrary finite state Markov processes satisfying detailed balance is discussed. In particular, we identify a crucial condition that distinguishes genuine metastable states from other types…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Francois Leyvraz , Hernan Larralde , David P. Sanders

A new Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for simulating the dynamics of molecular systems characterized by hard-core interactions is introduced. In contrast to traditional Kinetic Monte Carlo approaches, where the state of the system is…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-02-07 Liborio I. Costa

We present the Constructive Methods of Invariant Manifolds for model reduction in physical and chemical kinetics, developed during last two decades. The problem of reduced description is studied as a problem of constructing the slow…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 A. N. Gorban , I. V. Karlin , A. Yu. Zinovyev

In this work we provide explicit conditions on the existence of optimal feedback controls for stochastic processes with regime-switching. We use the compactification method which needs less regularity conditions on the coefficients of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-14 Jinghai Shao

Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Imon Banerjee , Vinayak Rao , Harsha Honnappa

By generalising concepts from classical stochastic dynamics, we establish the basis for a theory of metastability in Markovian open quantum systems. Partial relaxation into long-lived metastable states - distinct from the asymptotic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-06-23 Katarzyna Macieszczak , Madalin Guta , Igor Lesanovsky , Juan P. Garrahan

Dynamical systems theory provides powerful methods to extract effective macroscopic dynamics from complex systems with slow modes and fast modes. Here we derive and theoretically support a macroscopic, spatially discrete, model for a class…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2010-03-12 Wei Wang , A. J. Roberts

We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2015-08-03 Duccio Piovani , Jelena Grujic , Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

Model order reduction in high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical systems if often enabled through fast-slow timescale separation. One such approach involves identifying a low-dimensional slow manifold to which the state rapidly converges and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Dan Wilson

This work proposes a general framework for capturing noise-driven transitions in spatially extended non-equilibrium systems and explains the emergence of coherent patterns beyond the instability onset. The framework relies on stochastic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-12-16 Mickaël D. Chekroun , Honghu Liu , James C. McWilliams

For many stochastic processes there is an underlying coordinate space, $V$, with the process moving from point to point in $V$ or on variables (such as spin configurations) defined with respect to $V$. There is a matrix of transition…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-11-08 Bernard Gaveau , Lawrence S. Schulman , Leonard J. Schulman

Accelerating materials development requires quantitative linkages between processing, microstructure, and properties. In this work, we introduce a framework for mapping microstructure onto a low-dimensional material manifold that is…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-05-20 Simon A. Mason , Megna N. Shah , Jeffrey P. Simmons , Dennis M. Dimiduk , Stephen R. Niezgoda

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Christian Kuehn

Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Araz Hashemi , G. Yin , Le Yi Wang

We consider stochastic descriptions of chemical reaction networks in which there are both fast and slow reactions, and for which the time scales are widely separated. We develop a computational algorithm that produces the generator of the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-12-11 Xingye Kan , Chang Hyeong Lee , Hans G. Othmer

We study slow dynamics of particles moving in a matrix of immobile obstacles using molecular dynamics simulations. The glass transition point decreases drastically as the obstacle density increases. At higher obstacle densities, the…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-17 Kang Kim , Kunimasa Miyazaki , Shinji Saito

Markov state models (MSMs) are a widely used method for approximating the eigenspectrum of the molecular dynamics propagator, yielding insight into the long-timescale statistical kinetics and slow dynamical modes of biomolecular systems.…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-30 Robert T. McGibbon , Vijay S. Pande

This work aims at understanding the slow dynamics of a nonlocal fast-slow stochastic evolutionary system with stable Levy noise. Slow manifolds along with exponential tracking property for a nonlocal fast-slow stochastic evolutionary system…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Hina Zulfiqar , Shenglan Yuan , Ziying He , Jinqiao Duan