Related papers: Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COV…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

The last leg of the year 2019 gave rise to a virus named COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019). Since the beginning of this infection in India, the government implemented several policies and restrictions to curtail its spread among the…

We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…

We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the…

To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data, our analysis shows…

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…

Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…

We consider the $SEIRS$ epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. Within a compartmental realization of this…

In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID-19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID-19 variants have a strong…

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…

The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

The goal of this work is to analyse the effects of control policies for the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in Brazil. This is done by considering an age-structured SEIR model with a quarantine class and two types of controls. The first one…

Following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and pending the establishment of vaccination campaigns, several non pharmaceutical interventions such as partial and full lockdown, quarantine and measures of physical distancing have been…

In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a…

We measure the effect of different public health regulations to the spread of COVID-19, based on a SEIRA model -- a SEIR model including asymptomatic transmissions. The cumulative confirmed cases and death show nonlinear positive…

As the world fights to contain and control the spread of the Novel Coronavirus, countries are imposing severe measures from restrictions on travel and social gatherings to complete lockdowns. Lockdowns, though effective in controlling the…