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Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Thomas L. Dean , Keiji Kanazawa

We showed how to use trained neural networks to perform Bayesian reasoning in order to solve tasks outside their initial scope. Deep generative models provide prior knowledge, and classification/regression networks impose constraints. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-02 Jakob Knollmüller , Torsten Enßlin

A fascinating hypothesis is that human and animal intelligence could be explained by a few principles (rather than an encyclopedic list of heuristics). If that hypothesis was correct, we could more easily both understand our own…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Anirudh Goyal , Yoshua Bengio

Sequence learning is an essential aspect of intelligence. In Artificial Intelligence, sequence prediction task is usually used to test a sequence learning model. In this paper, a model of sequence learning, which is interpretable through…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Bowen Xu

Hierarchies feature prominently in anatomical accounts of cortical organisation. An open question is which computational (algorithmic) processes are implemented by these hierarchies. One renowned hypothesis is that cortical hierarchies…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-09-08 Andreea O. Diaconescu , Vladimir Litvak , Christoph Mathys , Lars Kasper , Karl J. Friston , Klaas E. Stephan

A unified theory of language combines a Bayesian cognitive linguistic model of language processing, with the proposal that language evolved by sexual selection for the display of intelligence. The theory accounts for the major facts of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-29 Robert Worden

Despite the extensive investment and impressive recent progress at reasoning by similarity, deep learning continues to struggle with more complex forms of reasoning such as non-monotonic and commonsense reasoning. Non-monotonicity is a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-04 Sofoklis Kyriakopoulos , Artur S. d'Avila Garcez

A. Tarski proposed the study of infinitary consequence operations as the central topic of mathematical logic. He considered monotonicity to be a property of all such operations. In this paper, we weaken the monotonicity requirement and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Michael Freund , Daniel Lehmann

State-of-the-art deep-learning systems use decision rules that are challenging for humans to model. Explainable AI (XAI) attempts to improve human understanding but rarely accounts for how people typically reason about unfamiliar agents. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-27 Scott Cheng-Hsin Yang , Wai Keen Vong , Ravi B. Sojitra , Tomas Folke , Patrick Shafto

Humans and other animals behave as if we perform fast Bayesian inference underlying decisions and movement control given uncertain sense data. Here we show that a biophysically realistic model of the subthreshold membrane potential of a…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2014-06-20 Michael G. Paulin , Andre van Schaik

There is increasing interest in learning how human brain networks vary as a function of a continuous trait, but flexible and efficient procedures to accomplish this goal are limited. We develop a Bayesian semiparametric model, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-02 Lu Wang , Daniele Durante , Rex E. Jung , David B. Dunson

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-28 Manikanta Srikar Yellapragada , Chandra Prakash Konkimalla

The current state-of-the-art in artificial intelligence is impressive, especially in terms of mastery of language, but not so much in terms of mathematical reasoning. What could be missing? Can we learn something useful about that gap from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Yoshua Bengio , Nikolay Malkin

Humans can learn languages from remarkably little experience. Developing computational models that explain this ability has been a major challenge in cognitive science. Bayesian models that build in strong inductive biases - factors that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-25 R. Thomas McCoy , Thomas L. Griffiths

Existing LLM reasoning methods have shown impressive capabilities across various tasks, such as solving math and coding problems. However, applying these methods to scenarios without ground-truth answers or rule-based verification methods -…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Hyunwoo Kim , Melanie Sclar , Tan Zhi-Xuan , Lance Ying , Sydney Levine , Yang Liu , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Yejin Choi

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-30 Andrew Gordon Wilson

In inductive learning of a broad concept, an algorithm should be able to distinguish concept examples from exceptions and noisy data. An approach through recursively finding patterns in exceptions turns out to correspond to the problem of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-07-11 Farhad Shakerin , Elmer Salazar , Gopal Gupta

Experiments in research on memory, language, and in other areas of cognitive science are increasingly being analyzed using Bayesian methods. This has been facilitated by the development of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-02 Daniel J. Schad , Michael Betancourt , Shravan Vasishth

Do LMs infer the semantics of text from co-occurrence patterns in their training data? Merrill et al. (2022) argue that, in theory, sentence co-occurrence probabilities predicted by an optimal LM should reflect the entailment relationship…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-18 William Merrill , Zhaofeng Wu , Norihito Naka , Yoon Kim , Tal Linzen

The dominant practice of AI alignment assumes (1) that preferences are an adequate representation of human values, (2) that human rationality can be understood in terms of maximizing the satisfaction of preferences, and (3) that AI systems…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Tan Zhi-Xuan , Micah Carroll , Matija Franklin , Hal Ashton