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The principle of allocating an equal number of patients to each arm in a randomized controlled trial remains widely believed to be optimal for maximising statistical power. However, this long-held belief only holds true if the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-15 Lukas Pin , Stef Baas , David S. Robertson , Sofía S. Villar

The best algorithm for a computational problem generally depends on the "relevant inputs," a concept that depends on the application domain and often defies formal articulation. While there is a large literature on empirical approaches to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-06 Rishi Gupta , Tim Roughgarden

Randomized experiments are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. However, out of the set of possible randomized assignments, some may be likely to produce poor effect estimates and misleading conclusions. Restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Maggie Wang , René F. Kizilcec , Michael Baiocchi

In randomized clinical trials, adjusting for baseline covariates can improve credibility and efficiency for demonstrating and quantifying treatment effects. This article studies the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-27 Marlena S. Bannick , Jun Shao , Jingyi Liu , Yu Du , Yanyao Yi , Ting Ye

Adjusting for (baseline) covariates with working regression models becomes standard practice in the analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCT). When the dimension $p$ of the covariates is large relative to the sample size $n$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Yujia Gu , Lin Liu , Wei Ma

Benkeser et al. demonstrate how adjustment for baseline covariates in randomized trials can meaningfully improve precision for a variety of outcome types. Their findings build on a long history, starting in 1932 with R.A. Fisher and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Laura B. Balzer , Erica Cai , Lucas Godoy Garraza , Pracheta Amaranath

Response-adaptive randomization (RAR) can increase participant benefit in clinical trials, but also complicates statistical analysis. The burn-in period (a non-adaptive initial stage) is commonly used to mitigate this disadvantage, yet…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Edwin Y. N. Tang , Stef Baas , Daniel Kaddaj , Lukas Pin , David S. Robertson , Sofía S. Villar

The statistical efficiency of randomized clinical trials can be improved by incorporating information from baseline covariates (i.e., pre-treatment patient characteristics). This can be done in the design stage using stratified (permutated…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Zhiwei Zhang

Clinical diagnosis is a highly specialized discipline requiring both domain expertise and strict adherence to rigorous guidelines. While current AI-driven medical research predominantly focuses on knowledge graphs or natural text…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Haolin Li , Tianjie Dai , Zhe Chen , Siyuan Du , Jiangchao Yao , Ya Zhang , Yanfeng Wang

Covariate-adaptive randomization is popular in clinical trials with sequentially arrived patients for balancing treatment assignments across prognostic factors which may have influence on the response. However, existing theory on tests for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-25 Ting Ye , Jun Shao

Objective: Randomized controlled trial (RCT) results often inform clinical decision-making, but the highly curated populations of trials and the care provided during the trial are often not reflective of real-world practice. The objective…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-26 Guanbo Wang , Ting-Wei Ernie Liao , David Furfaro , Leo Anthony Celi , Kevin Sheng-Kai Ma

As a paradigm for sequential decision making in unknown environments, reinforcement learning (RL) has received a flurry of attention in recent years. However, the explosion of model complexity in emerging applications and the presence of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Yuejie Chi , Yuxin Chen , Yuting Wei

We study the design of multi-armed parallel group clinical trials to estimate personalized treatment rules that identify the best treatment for a given patient with given covariates. Assuming that the outcomes in each treatment arm are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-13 David Azriel , Yosef Rinott , Martin Posch

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Connor T. Jerzak , Rebecca Goldstein

Oversubscribed treatments are often allocated using randomized waiting lists. Applicants are ranked randomly, and treatment offers are made following that ranking until all seats are filled. To estimate causal effects, researchers often…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-24 Clement de Chaisemartin , Luc Behaghel

The question of selecting the "best" amongst different choices is a common problem in statistics. In drug development, our motivating setting, the question becomes, for example: what is the dose that gives me a pre-specified risk of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-15 Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki

Identifying patient subgroups with different treatment responses is an important task to inform medical recommendations, guidelines, and the design of future clinical trials. Existing approaches for treatment effect estimation primarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Vincent Jeanselme , Chang Ho Yoon , Fabian Falck , Brian Tom , Jessica Barrett

Targeted therapies on the basis of genomic aberrations analysis of the tumor have shown promising results in cancer prognosis and treatment. Regardless of tumor type, trials that match patients to targeted therapies for their particular…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-18 Yanxun Xu , Peter Mueller , Apostolia M Tsimberidou , Donald Berry

Personalized optimal decision making, finding the optimal decision rule (ODR) based on individual characteristics, has attracted increasing attention recently in many fields, such as education, economics, and medicine. Current ODR methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-22 Hengrui Cai , Rui Song , Wenbin Lu

In a sequential multiple-assignment randomized trial (SMART), a sequence of treatments is given to a patient over multiple stages. In each stage, randomization may be done to allocate patients to different treatment groups. Even though…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Rik Ghosh , Bibhas Chakraborty , Inbal Nahum-Shani , Megan E. Patrick , Palash Ghosh
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