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We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation and prediction for nonhomogeneous Poisson process models with unknown intensity functions. We propose a class of improper priors for intensity functions. Nonparametric Bayesian inference with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 Fumiyasu Komaki

This paper investigates sparse high-dimensional linear regression, particularly examining the properties of the posterior under conditions of random design and unknown error variance. We provide consistency results for the posterior and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-30 The Tien Mai

Gaussian processes provide a framework for nonlinear nonparametric Bayesian inference widely applicable across science and engineering. Unfortunately, their computational burden scales cubically with the training sample size, which in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-16 Alec Koppel , Hrusikesha Pradhan , Ketan Rajawat

In this article, we study the binary classification problem with supervised data, in the case where the covariate-to-probability-of-success map is possibly spatially inhomogeneous. We devise nonparametric Bayesian procedures with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Matteo Giordano

The focus of this work is the convergence of non-stationary and deep Gaussian process regression. More precisely, we follow a Bayesian approach to regression or interpolation, where the prior placed on the unknown function $f$ is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Conor Osborne , Aretha L. Teckentrup

We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-26 Iván Díaz , Oleksander Savenkov , Hooman Kamel

We consider a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems in a separable Hilbert space setting with Gaussian noise. We assume Gaussian priors, which are conjugate to the model, and present a method of identifying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-05 Sergios Agapiou , Stig Larsson , Andrew M. Stuart

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Abhik Ghosh , Tuhin Majumder , Ayanendranath Basu

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

Given a sample from a discretely observed multidimensional compound Poisson process, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of its jump size density $r_0$ and intensity $\lambda_0$. We take a nonparametric Bayesian approach to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-08 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We consider selection of random predictors for high-dimensional regression problem with binary response for a general loss function. Important special case is when the binary model is semiparametric and the response function is misspecified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Mariusz Kubkowski , Jan Mielniczuk

Many approximate Bayesian inference methods assume a particular parametric form for approximating the posterior distribution. A multivariate Gaussian distribution provides a convenient density for such approaches; examples include the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-20 Jackson Zhou , Clara Grazian , John Ormerod

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Shouhao Zhou

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

We consider the nonparametric regression problem with multiple predictors and an additive error, where the regression function is assumed to be coordinatewise nondecreasing. We propose a Bayesian approach to make an inference on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Kang Wang , Subhashis Ghosal

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Owen Thomas , Jukka Corander