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Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful approach to inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data even when there exist latent confounders between the treatment and the outcome. However,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) methods often struggle with weak or invalid instruments and rely heavily on external data. We introduce a Synthetic Instrumental Variable (SIV) approach that constructs valid instruments using only…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Ratbek Dzhumashev , Ainura Tursunalieva

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-05 Isaiah Andrews , Timothy B. Armstrong

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Gregor Steiner , Jeremie Houssineau , Mark F. J. Steel

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In this study, we investigate estimation and inference on a low-dimensional causal parameter in the presence of high-dimensional controls in an instrumental variable quantile regression. Our proposed econometric procedure builds on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-23 Jau-er Chen , Chien-Hsun Huang , Jia-Jyun Tien

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) are considered a promising recipe to deliver better policy interventions. One key ingredient in optimal ITR estimation problems is to estimate the average treatment effect conditional on a subject's…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-16 Hongming Pu , Bo Zhang

Indirect inference requires simulating realisations of endogenous variables from the model under study. When the endogenous variables are discontinuous functions of the model parameters, the resulting indirect inference criterion function…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-11 David T. Frazier , Tatsushi Oka , Dan Zhu

This paper develops a Mean Group Instrumental Variables (MGIV) estimator for spatial dynamic panel data models with interactive effects, under large N and T asymptotics. Unlike existing approaches that typically impose slope-parameter…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-31 Jia Chen , Guowei Cui , Vasilis Sarafidis , Takashi Yamagata

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Diederik P Kingma , Max Welling

We study the kernel instrumental variable (KIV) algorithm, a kernel-based two-stage least-squares method for nonparametric instrumental variable regression. We provide a convergence analysis covering both identified and non-identified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-09 Dimitri Meunier , Zhu Li , Tim Christensen , Arthur Gretton

Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g., measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-05 Edward H. Kennedy , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Exclusion and exogeneity are core assumptions in instrumental variable (IV) analyses, but their empirical validity is often debated. This paper develops new sensitivity analyses for these assumptions. Our results accommodate arbitrary…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-10 Paul Diegert , Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier

High-dimensional linear models with endogenous variables play an increasingly important role in recent econometric literature. In this work we allow for models with many endogenous variables and many instrument variables to achieve…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-30 Alexandre Belloni , Christian Hansen , Whitney Newey

Obtaining valid treatment effect inference remains a challenging problem when dealing with numerous instruments and non-sparse control variables. In this paper, we propose a novel ridge regularization-based instrumental variables method for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-17 Xiduo Chen , Xingdong Feng , Antonio F. Galvao , Yeheng Ge

Uncertainty in the estimation of the causal effect in observational studies is often due to unmeasured confounding, i.e., the presence of unobserved covariates linking treatments and outcomes. Instrumental Variables (IV) are commonly used…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-30 M. Usaid Awan , Yameng Liu , Marco Morucci , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele

Nonlinearity and endogeneity are prevalent challenges in causal analysis using observational data. This paper proposes an inference procedure for a nonlinear and endogenous marginal effect function, defined as the derivative of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-19 Qingliang Fan , Zijian Guo , Ziwei Mei , Cun-Hui Zhang