Related papers: Deterministic Critical Community Size For The SIR …
We develop a mechanistic model that classifies individuals both in terms of epidemiological status (SIR) and vaccination attitude (willing or unwilling), with the goal of discovering how disease spread is influenced by changing opinions…
Deterministic evolutionary theory robustly predicts that populations displaying altruistic behaviours will be driven to extinction by mutant cheats that absorb common benefits but do not themselves contribute. Here we show that when…
For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…
The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…
We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…
We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. The spread of each strain in the absence of the other one is described by the stochastic…
The aim of this paper is to study the stochastic SIR equation with general incidence functional responses and in which both natural death rates and the incidence rate are perturbed by white noises. We derive a sufficient and almost…
In this project, identifiability, observability and uncertainty properties of the deterministic and Chain Binomial stochastic SIR, SEIR and SEIAR epidemiological models are studied. Techniques for modeling overdispersion are investigated…
The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to…
Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…
It has been shown that many networks associated with complex systems are small-world (they have both a large local clustering coefficient and a small diameter) and they are also scale-free (the degrees are distributed according to a power…
This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that captures the spread of competing SIR epidemics over a population network. First, we provide a sufficient condition for the infection level…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe…
Numerous elements drive the spread of infectious diseases in complex real-world networks. Of particular interest is social behaviors that evolve in tandem with the spread of disease. Moreover, recent studies highlight the importance of…
Finite-size fluctuations arising in the dynamics of competing populations may have dramatic influence on their fate. As an example, in this article, we investigate a model of three species which dominate each other in a cyclic manner.…
We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only their neighbours in the graph during an infectious period…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
Households play an important role in disease dynamics. Many infections happening there due to the close contact, while mitigation measures mainly target the transmission between households. Therefore, one can see households as boosting the…