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Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

Trial engagement effects are effects of trial participation on the outcome that are not mediated by treatment assignment. Most work on extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Lawson Ung , Tyler J. VanderWeele , Issa J. Dahabreh

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

We consider identification and inference for the average treatment effect and heterogeneous treatment effect conditional on observable covariates in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Since point identification of these treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Kan Chen , Jeffrey Zhang , Bingkai Wang , Dylan S. Small

Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-05 Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

In many medical studies, an ultimate failure event such as death is likely to be affected by the occurrence and timing of other intermediate clinical events. Both event times are subject to censoring by loss-to-follow-up but the nonterminal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-18 Fei Gao , Fan Xia , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Learning about causal effects in target populations and their subsets may be facilitated by combining information from multiple sources. One major class of study designs that combine information involves appending an index study with data…

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

Conditional independence of treatment assignment from potential outcomes is a commonly used but nonrefutable assumption. We derive identified sets for various treatment effect parameters under nonparametric deviations from this conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-25 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The decomposition of the overall effect of a treatment into direct and indirect effects is here investigated with reference to a recursive system of binary random variables. We show how, for the single mediator context, the marginal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Martina Raggi , Elena Stanghellini , Marco Doretti

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

The concept of causal nonseparability has been recently introduced, in opposition to that of causal separability, to qualify physical processes that locally abide by the laws of quantum theory, but cannot be embedded in a well-defined…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-02-04 Julian Wechs , Alastair A. Abbott , Cyril Branciard

Meta-analysis is commonly used to combine results from multiple clinical trials, but traditional meta-analysis methods do not refer explicitly to a population of individuals to whom the results apply and it is not clear how to use their…

Suppose that a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence an outcome of interest that occurs after the last treatment. Between treatments there exist time-dependent covariates that may be posttreatment variables of the earlier…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-28 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

We present current methods for estimating treatment effects and spillover effects under "interference", a term which covers a broad class of situations in which a unit's outcome depends not only on treatments received by that unit, but also…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-16 Peter M. Aronow , Dean Eckles , Cyrus Samii , Stephanie Zonszein

This paper investigates the case of interference, when a unit's treatment also affects other units' outcome. When interference is at work, policy evaluation mostly relies on the use of randomized experiments under cluster interference and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Laura Forastiere , Davide Del Prete , Valerio Leone Sciabolazza

Causal decomposition has provided a powerful tool to analyze health disparity problems, by assessing the proportion of disparity caused by each mediator. However, most of these methods lack \emph{policy implications}, as they fail to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xinwei Sun , Xiangyu Zheng , Jim Weinstein

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky