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To make informed policy recommendations from observational data, we must be able to discern true treatment effects from random noise and effects due to confounding. Difference-in-Difference techniques which match treated units to control…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-12 Nicholas Illenberger , Dylan S. Small , Pamela A. Shaw

In observational studies, covariate imbalance generates confounding, resulting in biased comparisons. Although propensity score-based weighting approaches facilitate unconfounded group comparisons for implicit target populations, existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-03 Subharup Guha , David C. Christiani , Yi Li

Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-27 Šimon Kucharský , Aayush Mishra , Daniel Habermann , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

The first step towards investigating the effectiveness of a treatment via a randomized trial is to split the population into control and treatment groups then compare the average response of the treatment group receiving the treatment to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-08-30 Hossein Babaei , Sina Alemohammad , Richard Baraniuk

The difference in restricted mean survival times between two groups is a clinically relevant summary measure. With observational data, there may be imbalances in confounding variables between the two groups. One approach to account for such…

Applications · Statistics 2014-10-17 Andrew Wey , David Vock , John Connett , Kyle Rudser

This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with covariate-adaptive randomization when there are multiple treatments. More specifically, we study inference about the average effect of one or more treatments relative to…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-21 Federico A. Bugni , Ivan A. Canay , Azeem M. Shaikh

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

With the growing access to administrative health databases, retrospective studies have become crucial evidence for medical treatments. Yet, non-randomized studies frequently face selection biases, requiring mitigation strategies. Propensity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-07 Alexandre Abraham , Andrés Hoyos Idrobo

When treatment effect modifiers influence the decision to participate in a randomized trial, the average treatment effect in the population represented by the randomized individuals will differ from the effect in other populations. In this…

In confirmatory clinical trials, survival outcomes are frequently studied and interim analyses for efficacy and/or futility are often desirable. Methods such as the log rank test and Cox regression model are commonly used to compare…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-27 Peter Zhang , Brent Logan , Michael Martens

Test-time adaptation aims to improve model robustness under distribution shifts by adapting models with access to unlabeled target samples. A primary cause of performance degradation under such shifts is the model's reliance on features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Yingnan Liu , Rui Qiao , Mong Li Lee , Wynne Hsu

The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-06 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Randomized experimentation (also known as A/B testing or bucket testing) is widely used in the internet industry to measure the metric impact obtained by different treatment variants. A/B tests identify the treatment variant showing the…

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT)s are relied upon to assess new treatments, but suffer from limited power to guide personalized treatment decisions. On the other hand, observational (i.e., non-experimental) studies have large and diverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Ming-Chieh Shih , Michael Oberst , Ilker Demirel , David Sontag

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) may suffer from limited scope. In particular, samples may be unrepresentative: some RCTs over- or under- sample individuals with certain characteristics compared to the target population, for which one…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-15 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Gaël Varoquaux , Erwan Scornet

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are increasingly estimated using machine learning models that produce highly personalized predictions of treatment effects. In practice, however, predicted treatment effects are rarely interpreted,…

Self-triggered control (STC) is a sample-and-hold control method aimed at reducing communications within networked-control systems; however, existing STC mechanisms often maximize how late the next sample is, and as such they do not provide…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-10 Gabriel de Albuquerque Gleizer , Khushraj Madnani , Manuel Mazo

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard when estimating the average treatment effect. However, they are usually not a random sample from the real-world population because of the inclusion/exclusion rules. Meanwhile, observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-11 Kuan Jiang , Wenjie Hu , Shu Yang , Xinxing Lai , Xiaohua Zhou

Microsimulation models (MSMs) are used to predict population-level effects of health care policies by simulating individual-level outcomes. Simulated outcomes are governed by unknown parameters that are chosen so that the model accurately…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Carolyn Rutter , Jonathan Ozik , Maria DeYoreo , Nicholson Collier

Randomization, as a key technique in clinical trials, can eliminate sources of bias and produce comparable treatment groups. In randomized experiments, the treatment effect is a parameter of general interest. Researchers have explored the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-05 Fuyi Tu , Wei Ma , Hanzhong Liu