Related papers: Bayesian inference of infected patients in group t…
In this paper we define for a Bernoulli samples the \emph{ empirical infection measure}, which counts the number of positives (infections) in the Bernoulli sample and for the \emph{ pool samples} we define the empirical pool infection…
Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…
We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…
The group testing problem is concerned with identifying a small set of $k$ infected individuals in a large population of $n$ people. At our disposal is a testing scheme that can test groups of individuals. A test comes back positive if and…
In this work we apply the methodology of integral priors to handle Bayesian model selection in binomial regression models with a general link function. These models are very often used to investigate associations and risks in…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can be used for model fitting when the likelihood function is intractable but simulating from the model is feasible. However, even a single evaluation of a complex model may take several hours,…
The paper is focused on the problem of estimating the probability $p$ of individual contaminated sample, under group testing. The precision of the estimator is given by the probability of proportional closeness, a concept defined in the…
Bayesian predictive probabilities of success (PPoS) use interim trial data to calculate the probability of trial success. These quantities can be used to optimize trial size or to stop for futility. In this paper, we describe a…
Bayesian experimental design (BED) for complex physical systems is often limited by the nested inference required to estimate the expected information gain (EIG) or its gradients. Each outer sample induces a different posterior, creating a…
Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…
A common divide-and-conquer approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data, perform local inference for each piece separately, and combine the results to obtain a global posterior approximation. While being…
The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…
Belief propagation (BP) is a popular method for performing probabilistic inference on graphical models. In this work, we enhance BP and propose self-guided belief propagation (SBP) that incorporates the pairwise potentials only gradually.…
COVID-19, a viral respiratory pandemic, has rapidly spread throughout the globe. Large scale and rapid testing of the population is required to contain the disease, but such testing is prohibitive in terms of resources, cost and time.…
We address the problem of uncertainty propagation in the discrete Fourier transform by modeling the fast Fourier transform as a factor graph. Building on this representation, we propose an efficient framework for approximate Bayesian…
Acute infection, if not rapidly and accurately detected, can lead to sepsis, organ failure and even death. Current detection of acute infection as well as assessment of a patient's severity of illness are imperfect. Characterization of a…
In this paper, we introduce a new support recovery algorithm from noisy measurements called Bayesian hypothesis test via belief propagation (BHT-BP). BHT-BP focuses on sparse support recovery rather than sparse signal estimation. The key…
Conventional approximations to Bayesian inference rely on either approximations by statistics such as mean and covariance or by point particles. Recent advances such as the ensemble Gaussian mixture filter have generalized these notions to…
We consider the problem of integrating a small probability sample (ps) and a non-probability sample (nps). By definition, for the nps, there are no survey weights, but for the ps, there are survey weights. The key issue is that the nps,…