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This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

Researchers are often challenged with assessing the impact of an intervention on an outcome of interest in situations where the intervention is non-randomised, the intervention is only applied to one or few units, the intervention is…

Causal effects are commonly defined as comparisons of the potential outcomes under treatment and control, but this definition is threatened by the possibility that the treatment or control condition is not well-defined, existing instead in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-26 Raiden B. Hasegawa , Sameer K. Deshpande , Dylan S. Small , Paul R. Rosenbaum

Many empirical studies estimate causal effects in environments where economic units interact through spatial or network connections. In such settings, outcomes are jointly determined, and treatment induced shocks propagate across…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-05 Mariluz Mate

In randomized experiments, covariates are often used to reduce variance and improve the precision of treatment effect estimates. However, in many real-world settings, interference between units, where one unit's treatment affects another's…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Xinyi Wang , Shuangning Li

We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-06 Allen Tran , Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus

Propensity score trimming, which discards subjects with propensity scores below a threshold, is a common way to address positivity violations that complicate causal effect estimation. However, most works on trimming assume treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

We propose a generalization of the synthetic controls and synthetic interventions methodology to incorporate network interference. We consider the estimation of unit-specific potential outcomes from panel data in the presence of spillover…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-13 Anish Agarwal , Sarah H. Cen , Devavrat Shah , Christina Lee Yu

In experimental design and causal inference, it may happen that the treatment is not defined on individual experimental units, but rather on pairs or, more generally, on groups of units. For example, teachers may choose pairs of students…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-24 Panos Toulis , Alexander Volfovsky , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Duncan A. Clark , Mark S. Handcock

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

Recently, many estimators for network treatment effects have been proposed. But, their optimality properties in terms of semiparametric efficiency have yet to be resolved. We present a simple, yet flexible asymptotic framework to derive the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-29 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

We describe our framework, deployed at Facebook, that accounts for interference between experimental units through cluster-randomized experiments. We document this system, including the design and estimation procedures, and detail insights…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-12-17 Brian Karrer , Liang Shi , Monica Bhole , Matt Goldman , Tyrone Palmer , Charlie Gelman , Mikael Konutgan , Feng Sun

Applied work under interference typically models outcomes as functions of own treatment and a low-dimensional exposure mapping of others' treatments, even when that mapping may be misspecified. We ask what policy object such exposure-based…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-27 Yechan Park , Xiaodong Yang

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

Estimation and inference procedures for synthetic control methods often do not allow for the existence of spillover effects, which are plausible in many applications. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for synthetic control…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-23 Jianfei Cao , Connor Dowd

Randomized controlled trials are not only the golden standard in medicine and vaccine trials but have spread to many other disciplines like behavioral economics, making it an important interdisciplinary tool for scientists. When designing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Tassilo Schwarz

This paper develops a general framework for identifying causal effects in settings with spillovers, where both outcomes and endogenous treatment decisions are influenced by peers within a known group. It introduces the generalized local…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-01 Huan Wu

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar