English
Related papers

Related papers: Solar Flares Forecasting Using Time Series and Ext…

200 papers

Understanding solar flares is critical for predicting space weather, as their activity shapes how the Sun influences Earth and its environment. The development of reliable forecasting methodologies of these events depends on robust flare…

Solar flare X-ray emission results from rapidly increasing temperatures and emission measures in flaring active region loops. To date, observations from the X-Ray Sensor (XRS) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-03-07 Daniel F. Ryan , Ryan O. Milligan , Peter T. Gallagher , Brian R. Dennis , A. Kim Tolbert , Richard A. Schwartz , C. Alex Young

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 Antoine Strugarek , Paul Charbonneau

We developed an operational solar flare prediction model using deep neural networks, named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). DeFN can issue probabilistic forecasts of solar flares in two categories, such as >=M-class and <M-class events or >=C-class…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-03 Naoto Nishizuka , Yuki Kubo , Komei Sugiura , Mitsue Den , Mamoru Ishii

Erroneous GNSS positioning, failures in spacecraft operations and power outages due to geomagnetically induced currents are severe threats originating from space weather. Having knowledge of potential impacts on modern society in advance is…

Space Physics · Physics 2021-06-29 Carsten Baumann , Aoife E. McCloskey

Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-04-07 Mohamed Abuella , Badrul Chowdhury

Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp…

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-22 Grégoire Francisco , Sabrina Guastavino , Teresa Barata , João Fernandes , Dario Del Moro

In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology for leveraging shape-based characteristics of magnetograms of active region (AR) patches and provide a novel capability for predicting solar flares covering the entirety of the solar disk (AR…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Chetraj Pandey , Temitope Adeyeha , Jinsu Hong , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

Satellite-based solar irradiation forecasting is useful for short-term intra-day time horizons, outperforming numerical weather predictions up to 3-4 hours ahead. The main techniques for solar satellite forecast are based on sophisticated…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-09-02 Franco Marchesoni-Acland , Rodrigo Alonso Suárez

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-01-26 Bach Viet Do , Yang Chen , XuanLong Nguyen , Ward Manchester

Poor air quality can have a significant impact on human health. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) air quality forecasting guidance is challenged by the increasing presence of extreme air quality events due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Sophia Hamer , Jennifer Sleeman , Ivanka Stajner

Whilst the most dynamic solar active regions (ARs) are known to flare frequently, predicting the occurrence of individual flares and their magnitude, is very much a developing field with strong potentials for machine learning applications.…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-16 M. B. Korsos , R. Erdelyi , J. Liu , H. Morgan

We present a statistical analysis of properties of Soft X-Ray (SXR) emission, plasma temperature (T), and emission measure (EM), derived from GOES observations of flares in 2002-2017. The temperature and emission measures are obtained using…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-03-27 Viacheslav M Sadykov , Alexander G Kosovichev , Irina N Kitiashvili , Alexander Frolov

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are key sources of subseasonal predictability and major drivers of extreme weather in winter. Accurate and efficient probabilistic forecasting of these events remains a persistent challenge for Numerical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Ningning Tao , Fei Xie , Baoxiang Pan , Hongyu Wang , Han Huang , Zhongpu Qiu , Ke Gui , Jiali Luo , Xiaosong Chen

Solar power harbors immense potential in mitigating climate change by substantially reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions. Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Oussama Boussif , Ghait Boukachab , Dan Assouline , Stefano Massaroli , Tianle Yuan , Loubna Benabbou , Yoshua Bengio

Data assimilation techniques, developed in the last two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-13 Eric Bélanger , Alain Vincent , Paul Charbonneau

Solar flares are transient yet dramatic events in the atmosphere of the Sun, during which a vast amount of magnetic energy is liberated. This energy is subsequently transported through the solar atmosphere or into the heliosphere, and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-14 Graham S. Kerr

In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-06 Mehmet Aktukmak , Zeyu Sun , Monica Bobra , Tamas Gombosi , Ward B. Manchester , Yang Chen , Alfred Hero

Indications are presented for a significant connection between the relative motion of the planets and the appearance of energetic solar flares. Based on the records of the last four decades, the analysis highlights remarkable features and a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-08-25 Eleni Petrakou , Iasonas Topsis Giotis