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Controllers trained with Reinforcement Learning tend to be very specialized and thus generalize poorly when their testing environment differs from their training one. We propose a Model-Based approach to increase generalization where both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Valentin Charvet , Sebastian Stein , Roderick Murray-Smith

Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…

Contextual Markov decision processes (CMDPs) describe a class of reinforcement learning problems in which the transition kernels and reward functions can change over time with different MDPs indexed by a context variable. While CMDPs serve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Junze Deng , Yuan Cheng , Shaofeng Zou , Yingbin Liang

Markov decision processes (MDP) are useful to model concurrent process optimisation problems, but verifying them with numerical methods is often intractable. Existing approximative approaches do not scale well and are limited to memoryless…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-09-18 Axel Legay , Sean Sedwards , Louis-Marie Traonouez

Active classification, i.e., the sequential decision-making process aimed at data acquisition for classification purposes, arises naturally in many applications, including medical diagnosis, intrusion detection, and object tracking. In this…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-10-02 Bo Wu , Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Suda Bharadwaj , Ufuk Topcu

Designing efficient and rigorous numerical methods for sequential decision-making under uncertainty is a difficult problem that arises in many applications frameworks. In this paper we focus on the numerical solution of a subclass of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Alice Cleynen , Benoîte de Saporta

In this paper, we consider a finite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) for which the objective at each stage is to minimize a quantile-based risk measure (QBRM) of the sequence of future costs; we call the overall objective a dynamic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-05-10 Daniel R. Jiang , Warren B. Powell

Many problems in science and engineering require uncertainty quantification that accounts for observed data. For example, in computational neuroscience, Neural Population Models (NPMs) are mechanistic models that describe brain physiology…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-04 Philip Maybank , Patrick Peltzer , Uwe Naumann , Ingo Bojak

In this paper we study a particular class of Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) which are semi-stochastic catastrophe versions of deterministic population growth models. In between successive jumps the process follows a flow…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Branda Goncalves , Thierry Huillet , Eva Löcherbach

We introduce a new portfolio credit risk model based on Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), which are stochastic neural networks capable of universal approximation of loss distributions. We test the model on an empirical dataset of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-26 Giuseppe Genovese , Ashkan Nikeghbali , Nicola Serra , Gabriele Visentin

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…

A labelled Markov decision process (MDP) is a labelled Markov chain with nondeterminism; i.e., together with a strategy a labelled MDP induces a labelled Markov chain. The model is related to interval Markov chains. Motivated by…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Stefan Kiefer , Qiyi Tang

We consider finite model approximations of discrete-time partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) under the discounted cost criterion. After converting the original partially observed stochastic control problem to a fully…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-20 Naci Saldi , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

The Bivariate Dynamic Contagion Processes (BDCP) are a broad class of bivariate point processes characterized by the intensities as a general class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. The BDCP describes a rich dynamic structure…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-23 Angelos Dassios , Xin Dong

We present new algorithms for computing and approximating bisimulation metrics in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Bisimulation metrics are an elegant formalism that capture behavioral equivalence between states and provide strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Pablo Samuel Castro

In this work, we study the problem of actively classifying the attributes of dynamical systems characterized as a finite set of Markov decision process (MDP) models. We are interested in finding strategies that actively interact with the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-06 Bo Wu , Niklas Lauffer , Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Suda Bharadwaj , Zhe Xu , Ufuk Topcu

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-03 Christos Merkatas , Konstantinos Kaloudis , Spyridon J. Hatjispyros

The bisimulation metric (BSM) is a powerful tool for computing state similarities within a Markov decision process (MDP), revealing that states closer in BSM have more similar optimal value functions. While BSM has been successfully…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Zhenyu Tao , Wei Xu , Xiaohu You

Partially-observed Boolean dynamical systems (POBDS) are a general class of nonlinear models with application in estimation and control of Boolean processes based on noisy and incomplete measurements. The optimal minimum mean square error…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-08 Mahdi Imani , Ulisses Braga-Neto

We develop an approach to time-consistent risk evaluation of continuous-time processes in Markov systems. Our analysis is based on dual representation of coherent risk measures, differentiability concepts for multivalued mappings, and a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-31 Darinka Dentcheva , Andrzej Ruszczynski