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Complex data in social and natural sciences find effective representation through networks, wherein quantitative and categorical information can be associated with nodes and connecting edges. The internal structure of networks can be…
This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social processes. In Part I, we begin by identifying a class of social processes which are simultaneously important in applications and difficult to predict using…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a fast-growing research and development (R&D) discipline which is attracting increasing attention because of its promises to bring vast benefits for consumers and businesses, with considerable benefits…
As data collections become larger, exploratory regression analysis becomes more important but more challenging. When observations are hierarchically clustered the problem is even more challenging because model selection with mixed effect…
This paper describes an approach to simultaneously identify clusters and estimate cluster-specific regression parameters from the given data. Such an approach can be useful in learning the relationship between input and output when the…
Background: Big Data is a relatively new field of research and technology, and literature reports a wide variety of concepts labeled with Big Data. The maturity of a research field can be measured in the number of publications containing…
Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…
Artificial intelligence is undergoing a profound transition from a computational instrument to an autonomous originator of scientific knowledge. This emerging paradigm, the AI scientist, is architected to emulate the complete scientific…
Academic challenges comprise effective means for (i) advancing the state of the art, (ii) putting in the spotlight of a scientific community specific topics and problems, as well as (iii) closing the gap for under represented communities in…
Adaptive specification search generates statistically significant backtests even under martingale-difference nulls. We introduce a falsification audit testing complete predictive workflows against synthetic reference classes, including…
Successful materials innovations can transform society. However, materials research often involves long timelines and low success probabilities, dissuading investors who have expectations of shorter times from bench to business. A…
Electricity forecasting has been a recurring research topic, as it is key to finding the right balance between production and consumption. While most papers are focused on the national or regional scale, few are interested in the household…
Envision an intelligent agent capable of assisting users in conducting forecasting tasks through intuitive, natural conversations, without requiring in-depth knowledge of the underlying machine learning (ML) processes. A significant…
For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An…
Understanding the nature and organization of scientific communities is of broad interest. The `Invisible College' is a historical metaphor for one such type of community and the search for such `colleges' can be framed as the detection and…
Many massive data are assembled through collections of information of a large number of individuals in a population. The analysis of such data, especially in the aspect of individualized inferences and solutions, has the potential to create…
Citation prediction of scholarly papers is of great significance in guiding funding allocations, recruitment decisions, and rewards. However, little is known about how citation patterns evolve over time. By exploring the inherent involution…
The possibility of a rapid, "software-only" intelligence explosion brought on by AI's recursive self-improvement (RSI) is a subject of intense debate within the AI community. This paper presents an economic model and an empirical estimation…
The Science4cast 2021 competition focuses on predicting future edges in an evolving semantic network, where each vertex represents an artificial intelligence concept, and an edge between a pair of vertices denotes that the two concepts have…
We report a framework that enables the wide adoption of authentic research educational methodology at various schools by addressing common barriers. The guiding principles we present were applied to implement a program in which teams of…