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A timely understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern and development trend of COVID-19 is critical for timely prevention and control. However, the under-reporting of cases is widespread in fields associated with public health. It is also…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
The implementation of social distancing policies is key to reducing the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effectiveness ultimately depends on human behavior. In the United States, compliance with social distancing…
Understanding the dynamics of passenger interactions and their epidemiological impact throughout public transportation systems is crucial for both service efficiency and public health. High passenger density and close physical proximity has…
Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…
During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced public health experts to develop contingent policies to stem the spread of infection, including measures such as partial/complete lockdowns. The effectiveness of these policies has varied with geography,…
COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…
In this work we propose a novel space-dependent multiscale model for the spread of infectious diseases in a two-dimensional spatial context on realistic geographical scenarios. The model couples a system of kinetic transport equations…
Major interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large-scale lockdowns of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal…
Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions have emerged as crucial interventions for mitigating the spread of the virus. In this study, we enhance the predictive capabilities of our model, Sequence-to-Sequence Epidemic Attention…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, commonly referred to as COVID-19, triggered the global pandemic. Although the nature of the international spread of infection is an important issue, extracting diffusion networks from observations is…
COVID-19 is an infectious respiratory disease that the World Health Organization has declared a pandemic. Although a global phenomenon, there is the need to react locally with swift and informed actions, as some of the essential plans are…
We analyze the spread of COVID-19 by considering the transmission of the disease among individuals both within and between regions. A set of regions can be defined as any partition of a population such that travel/social contact within each…
In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
We study the spread of Covid-19 across neighbourhoods of cities in the developing world and find that small numbers of neighbourhoods account for a majority of cases (k-index~0.7). We also find that the countrywide distribution of cases…
In this study, we use US county-level COVID-19 case data from January 21-March 25, 2020 to study the exponential behavior of case growth at the metropolitan scale. In particular, we assume that all localized outbreaks are in an early stage…