Related papers: Moderate deviation and exit time estimates for sta…
Suppose we observe a trajectory of length $n$ from an exponentially $\alpha$-mixing stochastic process over a finite but potentially large state space. We consider the problem of estimating the probability mass placed by the stationary…
In this paper we develop pivotal inference for the final (FPE) and relative final prediction error (RFPE) of linear forecasts in stationary processes. Our approach is based on a self-normalizing technique and avoids the estimation of the…
We use the concept of excursions for the prediction of random variables without any moment existence assumptions. To do so, an excursion metric on the space of random variables is defined which appears to be a kind of a weighted…
We consider first-passage percolation on the edges of $\mathbb{Z}^2 \times k,$ namely the slab of width $k$. Each edge is assigned independently a passage time of either 0 (with probability $1-p_c(\mathbb{S}_k)$) or 1 ((with probability…
We consider the random connection model in which an edge between two Poisson points at distance $r$ is present with probability $g(r)$. We conduct an extreme value analysis on this model, namely by investigating the longest edge with at…
In this paper we consider the semi-parametric estimation of extreme quantiles of a right heavy-tail model. We propose a new Log Probability Weighted Moment estimator for extreme quantiles, which is obtained from the estimators of the shape…
Lower bounds for persistence probabilities of stationary Gaussian processes in discrete time are obtained under various conditions on the spectral measure of the process. Examples are given to show that the persistence probability can decay…
Deviation of ergodic sums is studied for substitution dynamical systems with a matrix that admits eigenvalues of modulus 1. We consider the corresponding eigenfunctions, and in Theorem 1.1 we prove that the limit inferior of the ergodic…
We prove precise deviations results in the sense of Cram\'er and Petrov for the upper tail of the distribution of the maximal value for a special class of determinantal point processes that play an important role in random matrix theory.…
We consider first-passage percolation on the edges of $\mathbb{Z}^2 \times \{1, \cdots, k\},$ namely the slab $\mathbb{S}_k$ of width $k$. Each edge is assigned independently a passage time of either 0 (with probability $p_c(\mathbb{S}_k)$)…
We study the upper tail behaviors of the local times of the additive L\'{e}vy processes and additive random walks. The limit forms we establish are the moderate deviations and the laws of the iterated logarithm for the L_2-norms of the…
The fluctuations of the passage time in first passage percolation are of great interest. We show that the non-random fluctuations in planar FPP are at least of order $\log(n)^\alpha$ for any $\alpha<1/2$ under some conditions that are known…
In this paper, we consider the density estimation problem associated with the stationary measure of ergodic It\^o diffusions from a discrete-time series that approximate the solutions of the stochastic differential equations. To take an…
Stochastic interpolants offer a robust framework for continuously transforming samples between arbitrary data distributions, holding significant promise for generative modeling. Despite their potential, rigorous finite-time convergence…
We propose a method for the prediction of stationary max--stable random fields with $\alpha$-Fr\'echet marginal distribution $H_\alpha$. The method is suitable to cope with heavy tails for $\alpha\in(0,2)$ and is (approximately) exact in…
This paper develops and discusses a residual-based a posteriori error estimator for parabolic surface partial differential equations on closed stationary surfaces. The full discretization uses the surface finite element method in space and…
We consider ergodic backward stochastic differential equations in a discrete time setting, where noise is generated by a finite state Markov chain. We show existence and uniqueness of solutions, along with a comparison theorem. To obtain…
We investigate percolation on a randomly directed lattice, an intermediate between standard percolation and directed percolation, focusing on the isotropic case in which bonds on opposite directions occur with the same probability. We…
Barraquand, Corwin, and Yang arXiv:2306.05983 established that geometric last passage percolation (LPP) on a strip of $\mathbb{Z}^2$ has a unique stationary measure. Building on this, Barraquand arXiv:2409.08927 derived explicit contour…
We revisit the scaling properties of a model for non-equilibrium wetting [Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 2710 (1997)], correcting previous estimates of the critical exponents and providing a complete scaling scheme. Moreover, we investigate a special…