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Related papers: A Microscopic Epidemic Model and Pandemic Predicti…

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In this paper, we develop a variational method to track and make predictions about a real-world system from continuous imperfect observations about this system, using an agent-based model that describes the system dynamics. By combining the…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2016-05-17 Wen Dong

The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-10 Aresh Dadlani , Richard O. Afolabi , Hyoyoung Jung , Khosrow Sohraby , Kiseon Kim

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Caitlin Ward , Rob Deardon , Alexandra M. Schmidt

This paper proposes an approach to mitigate epidemic spread in a population of strategic agents by encouraging safer behaviors through carefully designed rewards. These rewards, which adapt to the evolving state of the epidemic, are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-31 Shinkyu Park , Jair Certorio , Nuno C. Martins , Richard J. La

Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-29 Thien-Minh Le , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Agent-based simulators (ABS) are a popular epidemiological modelling tool to study the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing an epidemic in a city (or a region). They provide the flexibility to accurately model a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-10-13 Daksh Mittal , Sandeep Juneja

In this manuscript we present several possible ways of modeling human capital accumulation during the spread of a disease following an agent based approach, where agents behave maximizing their intertemporal utility. We assume that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-09 Daria Ghilli , Cristiano Ricci , Giovanni Zanco

The success of a vaccination program is crucially dependent on its adoption by a critical fraction of the population, as the resulting herd immunity prevents future outbreaks of an epidemic. However, the effectiveness of a campaign can…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-07-02 Anupama Sharma , Shakti N. Menon , V. Sasidevan , Sitabhra Sinha

An epidemic spreading in a network calls for a decision on the part of the network members: They should decide whether to protect themselves or not. Their decision depends on the trade-off between their perceived risk of being infected and…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-17 George Theodorakopoulos , Jean-Yves Le Boudec , John S. Baras

Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Jan-Hendrik Niemann , Samuel Uram , Sarah Wolf , Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad , Martin Weiser

World models have emerged as a unifying paradigm for learning latent dynamics, simulating counterfactual futures, and supporting planning under uncertainty. In this paper, we argue that computational epidemiology is a natural and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Zeeshan Memon , Yiqi Su , Christo Kurisummoottil Thomas , Walid Saad , Liang Zhao , Naren Ramakrishnan

Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…

While artificial intelligence has been applied to control players' decisions in board games for over half a century, little attention is given to games with no player competition. Pandemic is an exemplar collaborative board game where all…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Konstantinos Sfikas , Antonios Liapis

Epidemic decision-making can effectively help the government to comprehensively consider public security and economic development to respond to public health and safety emergencies. Epidemic decision-making can effectively help the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Yangxi Zhou , Junping Du , Zhe Xue , Zhenhui Pan , Weikang Chen

A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-10-28 Lucila G. Alvarez Zuzek , Camila Buono , Lidia A. Braunstein

For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 M. C. Gonzalez , H. J. Herrmann

Developing the ability to comprehensively study infections in small populations enables us to improve epidemic models and better advise individuals about potential risks to their health. We currently have a limited understanding of how…

Applications · Statistics 2014-10-14 Wen Dong , Katherine A. Heller , Alex Sandy Pentland

We discuss a novel microscopic model for collective decision-making interacting multi-agent systems. In particular we are interested in modeling a well known phenomena in the experimental literature called equality bias, where agents tend…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-04-18 Pierluigi Vellucci , Mattia Zanella

Modeling infection spread during pandemics is not new, with models using past data to tune simulation parameters for predictions. These help understand the healthcare burden posed by a pandemic and respond accordingly. However, the problem…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-21 Himanshu Kharkwal , Dakota Olson , Jiali Huang , Abhiraj Mohan , Ankur Mani , Jaideep Srivastava

Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-03-05 Jorge P. Rodríguez , Matteo Paoluzzi , Demian Levis , Michele Starnini