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We study a new estimator for the tail index of a distribution in the Frechet domain of attraction that arises naturally by computing subsample maxima. This estimator is equivalent to taking a U-statistic over a Hill estimator with two order…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-20 Stefan Wager

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Jose Carlos Araujo Acuna , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

Case-I interval-censored (current status) data from multistate systems are often encountered in biomedical and epidemiological studies. In this article, we focus on the problem of estimating state entry distribution and occupation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Samuel Anyaso-Samuel , Somnath Datta

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-26 Rafał Kulik , Zhigang Tong

Censoring occurs when an outcome is unobserved beyond some threshold value. Methods that do not account for censoring produce biased predictions of the unobserved outcome. This paper introduces Type I Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Tree…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-21 Eoghan O'Neill

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-19 Jialin Zhang , Zhiyi Zhang

Patient care may be improved by recommending treatments based on patient characteristics when there is treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a great deal of attention focused on the estimation of optimal treatment rules…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Michael G. Hudgens , Jessie K. Edwards , Stephen R. Cole

We study optimal rating design under moral hazard and strategic manipulation. An intermediary observes a noisy indicator of effort and commits to a rating policy that shapes market beliefs and pay. We characterize optimal ratings via…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-08 Maryam Saeedi , Ali Shourideh

This paper investigates pooling strategies for tail index and extreme quantile estimation from heavy-tailed data. To fully exploit the information contained in several samples, we present general weighted pooled Hill estimators of the tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-08 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

In this work, we propose a class of importance sampling (IS) estimators for estimating the right tail probability of a sum of continuous random variables based on a change of variables to $L^1$ polar coordinates in which the radial and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-19 Thomas Taimre , Patrick J. Laub

There is a surge in medical follow-up studies that include longitudinal covariates in the modeling of survival data. So far, the focus has been largely on right-censored survival data. We consider survival data that are subject to both left…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-25 Yu-Ru Su , Jane-Ling Wang

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-14 Hong Shaopeng

Extreme value analysis in the presence of censoring is receiving much attention as it has applications in many disciplines, including survival and reliability studies. Estimation of extreme value index (EVI) is of primary importance as it…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-03 Richard Minkah , Tertius de Wet , Kwabena Doku-Amponsah

Many management decisions involve accumulated random realizations for which only the first and second moments of their distribution are available. The sharp Chebyshev-type bound for the tail probability and Scarf bound for the expected loss…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-15 Zhaolin Li , Artem Prokhorov

The Brier score is commonly used for evaluating probability predictions. In survival analysis, with right-censored observations of the event times, this score can be weighted by the inverse probability of censoring (IPCW) to retain its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-19 Håvard Kvamme , Ørnulf Borgan

Many data distributions in the real world are hardly uniform. Instead, skewed and long-tailed distributions of various kinds are commonly observed. This poses an interesting problem for machine learning, where most algorithms assume or work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Charika de Alvis , Suranga Seneviratne

As the data scale grows, deep recognition models often suffer from long-tailed data distributions due to the heavy imbalanced sample number across categories. Indeed, real-world data usually exhibit some similarity relation among different…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-18 Lei Liu , Li Liu

A weighted Gaussian approximation to tail product-limit process for Pareto-like distributions of randomly right-truncated data is provided and a new consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the extreme value index is derived. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Souad Benchaira , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir

We introduce a new statistical tool (the TP-statistic and TE-statistic) designed specifically to compare the behavior of the sample tail of distributions with power-law and exponential tails as a function of the lower threshold u. One…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 V. F. Pisarenko , D. Sornette

Benchmark datasets for visual recognition assume that data is uniformly distributed, while real-world datasets obey long-tailed distribution. Current approaches handle the long-tailed problem to transform the long-tailed dataset to uniform…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-25 Renhui Zhang , Tiancheng Lin , Rui Zhang , Yi Xu