Related papers: COVID-Pro in Italy: a dashboard for a province-bas…
In this paper, we firstly propose SQIARD and SIARD models to investigate the transmission of COVID-19 with quarantine, infected and asymptomatic infected, and discuss the relation between the respective basic reproduction number $R_0, R_Q$…
Approaches to the calculation of the full state vector of a larger epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in Sweden at the initial time instant from available data and with a simplified dynamical model are proposed and evaluated.…
Rapid and affordable methods of summarizing the multitude of data relating to the pandemic can be useful to health authorities and policy makers who are dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic at various levels in the territories affected by…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…
The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves…
We describe Epilocal, a simple R program designed to automatically download the most recent data on reported infected SARS-CoV-2 cases for all Italian provinces and regions, and to provide a simple descriptive analysis. For each province…
We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The 'D' (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known…
This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated…
We apply optimal control theory to a generalized SEIR-type model. The proposed system has three controls, representing social distancing, preventive means, and treatment measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
COVID-19 pandemic has been a disruptive event from health, social, and economic points of view. Besides that, changes in people's lifestyles, especially during the 2020 lockdowns, also affected energy networks. COVID-19 pandemic has…
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific…
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of…
In this short note we model the region-wise trends of the evolution to COVID-19 infections using a stochastic SIR model. The SIR dynamics are expressed using \textit{It\^o-stochastic differential equations}. We first derive the parameters…