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Kernel matching is a widely used technique for estimating treatment effects, particularly valuable in observational studies where randomized controlled trials are not feasible. While kernel-matching approaches have demonstrated practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 Chong Ding , Zheng Li , Hon Keung Tony Ng , Wei Gao

We study the estimation of the ATE in randomized controlled trials under a dynamically evolving interference structure. This setting arises in applications such as ride-sharing, where drivers move over time, and social networks, where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Su Jia , Peter Frazier , Nathan Kallus , Christina Lee Yu

Causally identifying the effect of digital advertising is challenging, because experimentation is expensive, and observational data lacks random variation. This paper identifies a pervasive source of naturally occurring, quasi-experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 George Gui , Harikesh Nair , Fengshi Niu

It is increasingly common in digital environments to use A/B tests to compare the performance of recommendation algorithms. However, such experiments often violate the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), particularly SUTVA's "no…

Objective: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are widely considered as gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of new health interventions. When treatment non-compliance is present in RCTs, the treatment effect in the subgroup of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-25 Theodosios Papazoglou , Ed Waddingham , Alastair Young

Randomized controlled trials are not only the golden standard in medicine and vaccine trials but have spread to many other disciplines like behavioral economics, making it an important interdisciplinary tool for scientists. When designing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Tassilo Schwarz

In cluster randomized controlled trials (CRCT) with a finite populations, the exact design-based variance of the Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator for the average treatment effect (ATE) depends on the joint distribution of unobserved…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-17 Yue Fang , Geert Ridder

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Eichi Uehara

We extend methods for finite-sample inference about the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized experiments with binary outcomes to accommodate stratification (blocking). We present three valid methods that differ in their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Jiaxun Li , Jacob Spertus , Philip B. Stark

Tech companies (e.g., Google or Facebook) often use randomized online experiments and/or A/B testing primarily based on the average treatment effects to compare their new product with an old one. However, it is also critically important to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Chengchun Shi , Shikai Luo , Hongtu Zhu , Rui Song

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

To minimize the mean squared error (MSE) in global average treatment effect (GATE) estimation under network interference, a popular approach is to use a cluster-randomized design. However, in the presence of homophily, which is common in…

As technology continues to advance, there is increasing concern about individuals being left behind. Many businesses are striving to adopt responsible design practices and avoid any unintended consequences of their products and services,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Guillaume Saint-Jacques , Amir Sepehri , Nicole Li , Igor Perisic

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-12 Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam , Rajesh Ranganath

Leveraging external controls -- relevant individual patient data under control from external trials or real-world data -- has the potential to reduce the cost of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) while increasing the proportion of trial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Yanyao Yi , Ying Zhang , Yu Du , Ting Ye

This paper studies ranking policies in a stylized trial-offer marketplace model, in which a single firm offers products and has consumers with heterogeneous preferences. Consumer trials are influenced by past purchases and the ranking of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Franco Berbeglia , Gerardo Berbeglia , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Evaluating the causal effect of recommendations is an important objective because the causal effect on user interactions can directly leads to an increase in sales and user engagement. To select an optimal recommendation model, it is common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Masahiro Sato

Online experiments (A/B tests) are widely regarded as the gold standard for evaluating recommender system variants and guiding launch decisions. However, a variety of biases can distort the results of the experiment and mislead…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Chen Zheng , Zhenyu Zhao

Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Sky Qiu , Jens Tarp , Andrew Mertens , Mark van der Laan

Rating aggregation plays a crucial role in various fields, such as product recommendations, hotel rankings, and teaching evaluations. However, traditional averaging methods can be affected by participation bias, where some raters do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Yongkang Guo , Yuqing Kong , Jialiang Liu