Related papers: Robust posterior inference when statistically emul…

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and…

Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost…

The interpretation of cosmological observables requires the use of increasingly sophisticated theoretical models. Since these models are becoming computationally very expensive and display non-trivial uncertainties, the use of standard…

This paper explores learning emulators for parameter estimation with uncertainty estimation of high-dimensional dynamical systems. We assume access to a computationally complex simulator that inputs a candidate parameter and outputs a…

Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling has become a standard technique for exploring the posterior distribution of cosmological parameters constrained by observations of CMB anisotropies. Given an infinite amount of time, any MCMC sampler will…

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…

We discuss an approach for deriving robust posterior distributions from $M$-estimating functions using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods. In particular, we use $M$-estimating functions to construct suitable summary statistics…

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

In cosmology, emulators play a crucial role by providing fast and accurate predictions of complex physical models, enabling efficient exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces that would be computationally prohibitive with direct…

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at…

This work presents a novel posterior inference method for models with intractable evidence and likelihood functions. Error-guided likelihood-free MCMC, or EG-LF-MCMC in short, has been developed for scientific applications, where a…

In this chapter, we address the challenge of exploring the posterior distributions of Bayesian inverse problems with computationally intensive forward models. We consider various multivariate proposal distributions, and compare them with…

As the amount and complexity of available data increases, the need for robust statistical learning becomes more pressing. To enhance resilience against model misspecification, the generalized posterior inference method adjusts the…

Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In…

Theoretical computation of cosmological observables is an intensive process, restricting the speed at which cosmological data can be analysed and cosmological models constrained, and therefore limiting research access to those with high…

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

We advocate for a new paradigm of cosmological likelihood-based inference, leveraging recent developments in machine learning and its underlying technology, to accelerate Bayesian inference in high-dimensional settings. Specifically, we…

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…