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In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the marginal density in some nonlinear autoregressive time series models for which the conditional mean and variance have a parametric specification. Under some regularity conditions, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-31 Lionel Truquet

Randomized clinical trials typically aim to estimate a marginal treatment effect. While covariate adjustment can improve precision, it may change the estimand in nonlinear models due to noncollapsibility, leading to conditional rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Leticia Wuethrich , Torsten Hothorn

When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

Studies investigating the causal effects of spatially varying exposures on outcomes often rely on observational and spatially indexed data. A prevalent challenge is unmeasured spatial confounding, where an unobserved spatially varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-19 Sophie M. Woodward , Mauricio Tec , Francesca Dominici

Treatment switching in a randomized controlled trial is said to occur when a patient randomized to one treatment arm switches to another treatment arm during follow-up. This can occur at the point of disease progression, whereby patients in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-24 Andrew Ying , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) difference offers an interpretable causal contrast to estimate the treatment effect for time-to-event outcomes, yet a wide range of available estimators leaves limited guidance for practice. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Charlotte Voinot , Clément Berenfeld , Imke Mayer , Bernard Sebastien , Julie Josse

We study instrumental-variable designs where policy reforms strongly shift the distribution of an endogenous variable but only weakly move its mean. We formalize this by introducing distributional relevance: instruments may be purely…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-12 Rowan Cherodian , Guy Tchuente

Assuming some regression model, it is common to study the conditional distribution of survival given covariates. Here, we consider the impact of further conditioning, specifically conditioning on a marginal survival function, known or…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-11 Roxane Duroux , Cécile Chauvel , John O'Quigley

The spatial linear mixed model (SLMM) consists of fixed and spatial random effects that may be linearly dependent. Partially motivated as a means to address potential issues with confounding, the Restricted spatial regression (RSR) model…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Jonathan R. Bradley

The identification of latent mediator variables is typically conducted using standard structural equation models (SEMs). When SEM is applied to mediation analysis with a causal interpretation, valid inference relies on the strong assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Sofia Morelli , Roberto Faleh , Holger Brandt

Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

The sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) is the gold standard trial design to generate data for the evaluation of multi-stage treatment regimes. As with conventional (single-stage) randomized clinical trials, interim…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Cole Manschot , Eric Laber , Marie Davidian

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) has become a popular measure to summarize event times in longitudinal studies. Defined as the area under the survival function up to a time horizon $\tau$ > 0, the RMST can be interpreted as the life…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Alina Schenk , Vanessa Basten , Matthias Schmid

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is an intuitive summary statistic for time-to-event random variables, and can be used for measuring treatment effects. Compared to hazard ratio, its estimation procedure is robust against the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Ruizhe Chen , Sanjib Basu , Qian Shi

Non-adherence to assigned treatment is common in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Recently, there has been an increased interest in estimating causal effects of treatment received, for example the so-called local average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-05 Karla DiazOrdaz , James Carpenter

Contrasting marginal counterfactual survival curves across treatment arms is an effective and popular approach for inferring the causal effect of an intervention on a right-censored time-to-event outcome. A key challenge to drawing such…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-29 Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Automated damage detection is an integral component of each structural health monitoring (SHM) system. Typically, measurements from various sensors are collected and reduced to damage-sensitive features, and diagnostic values are generated…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-27 Lizzie Neumann , Philipp Wittenberg , Alexander Mendler , Jan Gertheiss

Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Andrew Jesson , Alyson Douglas , Peter Manshausen , Maëlys Solal , Nicolai Meinshausen , Philip Stier , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) with binary outcomes are increasingly used in prevention and implementation studies. Marginal models represent a flexible tool for analyzing SW-CRTs with population-averaged interpretations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-05 Fan Li , Hengshi Yu , Paul J. Rathouz , Elizabeth L. Turner , John S. Preisser
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