Related papers: How long does a lockdown need to be?
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…
The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…
We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number…
This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on…
There are multiple testing methods to ascertain an infection in an individual and they vary in their performances, cost and delay. Unfortunately, better performing tests are sometimes costlier and time consuming and can only be done for a…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
The COVID-19 pandemic has proved to be one of the most disruptive public health emergencies in recent memory. Among non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown measures are some of the most common tools employed by…
Given maximal social distancing duration and intensity, how can one minimize the epidemic final size, or equivalently the total number of individuals infected during the outbreak? A complete answer to this question is provided and…
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…
In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries…
The importance of a strict quarantine has been widely debated during the COVID-19 epidemic even from the purely epidemiological point of view. One argument against strict lockdown measures is that once the strict quarantine is lifted, the…
While social living is considered to be an indispensable part of human life in today's ever-connected world, social distancing has recently received much public attention on its importance since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In…
It has recently become established that the spread of infectious diseases between humans is affected not only by the pathogen itself but also by changes in behavior as the population becomes aware of the epidemic; for example, social…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
Epidemic control is of great importance for human society. Adjusting interacting partners is an effective individualized control strategy. Intuitively, it is done either by shortening the interaction time between susceptible and infected…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
The diffusion of COVID19 is calling governments and public health authorities to interventions that limit new infections and contain the expected number of critical cases and deaths. Most of these measures rely on the compliance of people,…
Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types of control…