Related papers: Lundberg-type inequalities for non-homogeneous ris…
Marginal structural models were introduced in order to provide estimates of causal effects from interventions based on observational studies in epidemiological research. The key point is that this can be understood in terms of Girsanov's…
We consider the mean-variance hedging problem under partial information in the case where the flow of observable events does not contain the full information on the underlying asset price process. We introduce a martingale equation of a new…
We start by showing that the finite-time absolute ruin probability in the classical risk model with constant interest force can be expressed in terms of the transition probability of a positive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process, say X. Our…
We study the discrete time risk process modelled by the skip-free random walk and we derive the results connected to the ruin probability, such as crossing the fixed level, for this kind of process. We use the method relying on the…
The aim of this paper is to construct the confidence interval of the ultimate ruin probability under the insurance surplus driven by a L\'evy process. Assuming a parametric family for the L\'evy measures, we estimate the parameter from the…
We study risk processes with level dependent premium rate. Assuming that the premium rate converges, as the risk reserve increases, to the critical value in the net-profit condition, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the ruin…
In this paper, we propose a class of low-rank panel quantile regression models which allow for unobserved slope heterogeneity over both individuals and time. We estimate the heterogeneous intercept and slope matrices via nuclear norm…
Frailty and resilience models provide a way to introduce random effects in hazard and reversed hazard rate modeling by random variables, called frailty and resilience random variables, respectively, to account for unobserved or unexplained…
The failure probabilities or the strength distributions of heterogeneous 1D systems with continuous local strength distribution and local load sharing have been studied using a simple, exact, recursive method. The fracture behavior depends…
With the ubiquitous availability of unstructured data, growing attention is paid as how to adjust for selection bias in such non-probability samples. The majority of the robust estimators proposed by prior literature are either fully or…
We explicitly find the rate of exponential long-term convergence for the ruin probability in a level-dependent L\'evy-driven risk model, as time goes to infinity. Siegmund duality allows to reduce the pro blem to long-term convergence of a…
We consider the problem of an agent who faces losses in continuous time over a finite time horizon and may choose to share some of these losses with a counterparty. The agent is uncertain about the true loss distribution and has multiple…
In this manuscript we consider the dual risk model with financial application, where the random gains occur under a renewal process. We particularly work the Erlang(n) case for common distribution of the inter-arrival times, from there it…
We prove oracle inequalities for a penalized log-likelihood criterion that hold even if the data are not independent and not stationary, based on a martingale approach. The assumptions are checked for various contexts: density estimation…
Sewer pipe systems are essential for social and economic welfare. Managing these systems requires robust predictive models for degradation behaviour. This study focuses on probability-based approaches, particularly Markov chains, for their…
We consider a spectrally-negative Markov additive process as a model of a risk process in random environment. Following recent interest in alternative ruin concepts, we assume that ruin occurs when an independent Poissonian observer sees…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
The paper deals with the ruin problem of an insurance company investing its capital reserve in a risky asset with the price dynamics given by a conditional geometric Brownian motion whose parameters depend on a Markov process describing a…
A basis expansion with regularization methods is much appealing to the flexible or robust nonlinear regression models for data with complex structures. When the underlying function has inhomogeneous smoothness, it is well known that…
In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time…