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We consider the problem of static Bayesian inference for partially observed Levy-process models. We develop a methodology which allows one to infer static parameters and some states of the process, without a bias from the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-01 Hamza Ruzayqat , Ajay Jasra

Spatio-temporal hidden Markov models are extremely difficult to estimate because their latent joint distributions are available only in trivial cases. In the estimation phase, these latent distributions are usually substituted with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Daniele Tancini , Riccardo Rastelli , Francesco Bartolucci

We propose a new stochastic model for streamflow discharge timeseries as a jump-driven process, called a superposition of continuous-state branching processes with immigration (a supCBI process). It is a non-Markovian model having the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-14 Hidekazu Yoshioka

Renyi's "thinning" operation on a discrete random variable is a natural discrete analog of the scaling operation for continuous random variables. The properties of thinning are investigated in an information-theoretic context, especially in…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-08-17 Peter Harremoes , Oliver Johnson , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

We introduce a class of Markov chains, that contains the model of stochastic approximation by averaging and non-averaging. Using martingale approximation method, we establish various deviation inequalities for separately Lipschitz functions…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-16 Xiequan Fan , Pierre Alquier , Paul Doukhan

We revisit the variational characterization of conservative diffusion as entropic gradient flow and provide for it a probabilistic interpretation based on stochastic calculus. It was shown by Jordan, Kinderlehrer, and Otto that, for…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-24 Ioannis Karatzas , Walter Schachermayer , Bertram Tschiderer

We consider periodic Markov chains with absorption. Applying to iterates of this periodic Markov chain criteria for the exponential convergence of conditional distributions of aperiodic absorbed Markov chains, we obtain exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

Inspired by the idea of stochastic quantization proposed by Parisi and Wu, we construct the transition probability matrix which plays a central role in the renormalization group through a stochastic differential equation. By establishing…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-13 Kaiyuan Cui , Fuzhou Gong

Extreme value functionals of stochastic processes are inverse functionals of the first passage time -- a connection that renders their probability distribution functions equivalent. Here, we deepen this link and establish a framework for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-30 David Hartich , Aljaz Godec

In the context of interacting particle systems, we study the influence of the action of the semigroup on the concentration property of Lipschitz functions. As an application, this gives a new approach to estimate the relaxation speed to…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-30 Jean René Chazottes , Pierre Collet , Frank Redig

In this work, we characterise the statistics of Markov chains by constructing an associated sequence of periodic differential operators. Studying the density of states of these operators reveals the absolutely continuous invariant measure…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-09-22 Bryn Davies , Angelica Yu Xiao

We study time-inhomogeneous Markov chains to obtain quantitative results on their asymptotic behavior. We use Poincar\'e, Nash, and logarithmic-Sobolev inequalities. We assume that our Markov chain admits a finite invariant measure at each…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-25 Nordine Moumeni

Numerical simulation of stochastic differential equations over long time intervals poses significant computational challenges. In this paper, we propose a novel recursive polynomial chaos evolution method that achieves model reduction…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Guillaume Bal , Shengbo Ma , Su Zhang , Zhiwen Zhang

We study convergence to equilibrium for a large class of Markov chains in random environment. The chains are sparse in the sense that in every row of the transition matrix $P$ the mass is essentially concentrated on few entries. Moreover,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-23 Charles Bordenave , Pietro Caputo , Justin Salez

Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti , David Schnoerr

We develop connections between Stein's approximation method, logarithmic Sobolev and transport inequalities by introducing a new class of functional inequalities involving the relative entropy, the Stein kernel, the relative Fisher…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-24 Michel Ledoux , Ivan Nourdin , Giovanni Peccati

The Markov-Bernstein type inequalities between the norms of functions and of their derivatives are analysed for complex exponential polynomials. We establish a relation between the sharp constants in those inequalities and the stability…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Vladimir Yu. Protasov

Using the renewal approach we prove Bernstein-like inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The coefficient in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Michał Lemańczyk

We generalize the thermodynamic uncertainty relation, providing an entropic upper bound for average fluxes in time-continuous steady-state systems (Gingrich et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 120601 (2016)), to time-discrete Markov chains and to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-10-11 Karel Proesmans , Christian Van den Broeck

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-15 Jordan Franks