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Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Tao Shen , Yifan Cui

We study a decision-maker's problem of finding optimal monetary incentive schemes for retention when faced with agents whose participation decisions (stochastically) depend on the incentive they receive. Our focus is on policies constrained…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Daniel Freund , Chamsi Hssaine

Constructing confidence intervals for the value of an (unknown) optimal treatment policy is a fundamental problem in causal inference. Insight into the optimal policy value can guide the development of reward-maximizing, individualized…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-01 Justin Whitehouse , Qizhao Chen , Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Dynamic treatment regimes are of growing interest across the clinical sciences as these regimes provide one way to operationalize and thus inform sequential personalized clinical decision making. A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-27 Eric B. Laber , Min Qian , Dan J. Lizotte , William E. Pelham , Susan A. Murphy

In survival contexts, substantial literature exists on estimating optimal treatment regimes, where treatments are assigned based on personal characteristics to maximize the survival probability. These methods assume that a set of covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Junwen Xia , Zishu Zhan , Jingxiao Zhang

This paper is dedicated to control theoretically explainable application of autoencoders to optimal fault detection in nonlinear dynamic systems. Autoencoder-based learning is a standard machine learning method and widely applied for fault…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-17 Linlin Li , Steven X. Ding , Ketian Liang , Zhiwen Chen , Ting Xue

We are witnessing an increasing use of data-driven predictive models to inform decisions. As decisions have implications for individuals and society, there is increasing pressure on decision makers to be transparent about their decision…

In many problems, the measured variables (e.g., image pixels) are just mathematical functions of the latent causal variables (e.g., the underlying concepts or objects). For the purpose of making predictions in changing environments or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Kun Zhang , Shaoan Xie , Ignavier Ng , Yujia Zheng

We consider a class of misspecified dynamical models where the governing term is only approximately known. Under the assumption that observations of the system's evolution are accessible for various initial conditions, our goal is to infer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-06 Gal Shulkind , Lior Horesh , Haim Avron

Precise knowledge of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is assumed for standard approaches towards valid adjustment set selection for unbiased estimation, but in practice, the DAG is often inferred from data or expert knowledge,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Zhongyi Hu , Stéphanie van der Pas

In many applied fields, researchers are often interested in tailoring treatments to unit-level characteristics in order to optimize an outcome of interest. Methods for identifying and estimating treatment policies are the subject of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-06 Eli Sherman , David Arbour , Ilya Shpitser

This study presents the extension of the data-driven optimal prediction approach to the dynamical system with control. The optimal prediction is used to analyze dynamical systems in which the states consist of resolved and unresolved…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-06-05 Aleksandr Katrutsa , Ivan Oseledets , Sergey Utyuzhnikov

The application of existing methods for constructing optimal dynamic treatment regimes is limited to cases where investigators are interested in optimizing a utility function over a fixed period of time (finite horizon). In this manuscript,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-22 Ashkan Ertefaie

In recent years, Ising prior with the network information for the "in" or "out" binary random variable in Bayesian variable selections has received more and more attentions. In this paper, we discover that even without the informative prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-14 Zaili Fang , Inyoung Kim

Treatment effect estimation from observational data has attracted significant attention across various research fields. However, many widely used methods rely on the unconfoundedness assumption, which is often unrealistic due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Di Fan , Renlei Jiang , Yunhao Wen , Chuanhou Gao

Randomized experiments have become important tools in empirical research. In a completely randomized treatment-control experiment, the simple difference in means of the outcome is unbiased for the average treatment effect, and covariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Lihua Lei , Peng Ding

We consider the problem of identifying a conditional causal effect through covariate adjustment. We focus on the setting where the causal graph is known up to one of two types of graphs: a maximally oriented partially directed acyclic graph…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Sara LaPlante , Emilija Perković

Accurately modeling and verifying the correct operation of systems interacting in dynamic environments is challenging. By leveraging parametric uncertainty within the model description, one can relax the requirement to describe exactly the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Patrick Holmes , Shreyas Kousik , Shankar Mohan , Ram Vasudevan

Distribution shifts between training and testing datasets significantly impair the model performance on graph learning. A commonly-taken causal view in graph invariant learning suggests that stable predictive features of graphs are causally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Bohan Wang , Yurui Chang , Wei Jin , Lu Lin
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