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Rapid increase in the number of photo voltaic systems (PVSs) across the low voltage distribution systems required real-time monitoring of those systems. However, considering the necessary investment cost, real-time monitoring infrastructure…
This work deals with the problem of estimating a photovoltaic generation forecasting model in scenarios where measurements of meteorological variables (i.e. solar irradiance and temperature) at the plant site are not available. A novel…
We consider the problem of estimating the unobserved amount of photovoltaic (PV) generation and demand in a power distribution network starting from measurements of the aggregated power flow at the point of common coupling (PCC) and local…
We propose a fully probabilistic prediction model for spatially aggregated solar photovoltaic (PV) power production at an hourly time scale with lead times up to several days using weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems…
This paper presents a parametric model approach to address the problem of photovoltaic generation forecasting in a scenario where measurements of meteorological variables, i.e., solar irradiance and temperature, are not available at the…
This paper presents a set of methods for estimating the renewable energy generation downstream of a measurement device using real-world measurements. First, we present a generation disaggregation scheme where the only information available…
In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems…
The rapid deployment of renewable generations such as photovoltaic (PV) generations brings great challenges to the resiliency of existing power systems. Because PV generations are volatile and typically invisible to the power system…
Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation (also called total generation) is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work…
Customer-level rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has been widely integrated into distribution systems. In most cases, PVs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), and only the net demand is recorded. Therefore, the native demand and PV generation are…
We develop a probabilistic framework for joint simulation of short-term electricity generation from renewable assets. In this paper we describe a method for producing hourly day-ahead scenarios of generated power at grid-scale across…
In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not…
As the cost of the residential solar system decreases, rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has been widely integrated into distribution systems. Most rooftop PV systems are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), i.e., only the net demand is metered, while…
To cater the rapidly growing demand for electricity leading to the integration of renewable energy sources in power system. Due to intermittent nature of renewables, it also brings challenges for research community during the planning and…
The uptake of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources in low-voltage distribution networks has reached a level where network issues have started to emerge, which requires new tools for operation and planning. In this paper, we propose…
Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition,…
Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However,…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for grid operations, electricity markets, and energy planning, as solar systems now contribute a significant share of the electricity supply in many…