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We give a principled method for decomposing the predictive uncertainty of a model into aleatoric and epistemic components with explicit semantics relating them to the real-world data distribution. While many works in the literature have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Gustaf Ahdritz , Aravind Gollakota , Parikshit Gopalan , Charlotte Peale , Udi Wieder

Over the past two decades, significant strides have been made in stochastic problems such as revenue-optimal auction design and prophet inequalities, traditionally modeled with $n$ independent random variables to represent the values of $n$…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Vasilis Livanos , Kalen Patton , Sahil Singla

Motivated by the growing interest in correlation-robust stochastic optimization, we investigate stochastic selection problems beyond independence. Specifically, we consider the instructive case of pairwise-independent priors and matroid…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Shaddin Dughmi , Yusuf Hakan Kalayci , Neel Patel

Due to their numerous applications, in particular in Mechanism Design, Prophet Inequalities have experienced a surge of interest. They describe competitive ratios for basic stopping time problems where random variables get revealed…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Moran Feldman , Ola Svensson , Rico Zenklusen

Prophet inequalities compare the expected performance of an online algorithm for a stochastic optimization problem to the expected optimal solution in hindsight. They are a major alternative to classic worst-case competitive analysis, of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-04-22 Paul Dütting , Thomas Kesselheim , Brendan Lucier

We study threshold testing, an elementary probing model with the goal to choose a large value out of $n$ i.i.d. random variables. An algorithm can test each variable $X_i$ once for some threshold $t_i$, and the test returns binary feedback…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Martin Hoefer , Kevin Schewior

In this work we initiate the study of buy-and-sell prophet inequalities. We start by considering what is arguably the most fundamental setting. In this setting the online algorithm observes a sequence of prices one after the other. At each…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-05-26 José Correa , Andrés Cristi , Paul Dütting , Mohammad Hajiaghayi , Jan Olkowski , Kevin Schewior

We study the classic single-choice prophet inequality problem through a resource augmentation lens. Our goal is to bound the $(1-\varepsilon)$-competition complexity of different types of online algorithms. This metric asks for the smallest…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-23 Johannes Brustle , José Correa , Paul Dütting , Tomer Ezra , Michal Feldman , Victor Verdugo

We propose a novel stochastic distributed method for both monotone and strongly monotone variational inequalities with Lipschitz operator and proper convex regularizers arising in various applications from game theory to adversarial…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-07 Aleksandr Beznosikov , Darina Dvinskikh , Dmitry Bylinkin , Andrei Semenov , Alexander Gasnikov

We take a unifying approach to single selection optimal stopping problems with random arrival order and independent sampling of items. In the problem we consider, a decision maker (DM) initially gets to sample each of $N$ items…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-08-11 José Correa , Andrés Cristi , Boris Epstein , José Soto

This work introduces a new cubic regularization method for nonconvex unconstrained multiobjective optimization problems. At each iteration of the method, a model associated with the cubic regularization of each component of the objective…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-11 Douglas S. Gonçalves , Max L. N. Gonçalves , Jefferson G. Melo

In the classical prophet inequality settings, a gambler is given a sequence of $n$ random variables $X_1, \dots, X_n$, taken from known distributions, observes their values in this (potentially adversarial) order, and select one of them,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Sariel Har-Peled , Elfarouk Harb , Vasilis Livanos

In this work, we give a novel general approach for distribution testing. We describe two techniques: our first technique gives sample-optimal testers, while our second technique gives matching sample lower bounds. As a consequence, we…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-05-10 Ilias Diakonikolas , Daniel M. Kane

Suppose $X_1,X_2,...$ are i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with finite expectation, and for each $k$, $X_k$ is observed at the $k$-th arrival time $S_k$ of a Poisson process with unit rate which is independent of the sequence $\{X_k\}$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-08 Pieter C. Allaart

In this paper, we study $k$-unit single sample prophet inequalities. A seller has $k$ identical, indivisible items to sell. A sequence of buyers arrive one-by-one, with each buyer's private value for the item, $X_i$, revealed to the seller…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Pranav Nuti , Peter Westbrook

In the classical optimal stopping problem, a player is given a sequence of random variables $X_1\ldots X_n$ with known distributions. After observing the realization of $X_i$, the player can either accept the observed reward from $X_i$ and…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2020-07-24 Shipra Agrawal , Jay Sethuraman , Xingyu Zhang

We consider a broad class of permutation invariant statistical problems by extending the standard decision theoretic definition to allow also selective inference tasks, where the target is specified only after seeing the data. For any such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Asaf Weinstein

We consider the problem of minimizing a convex function that depends on an uncertain parameter $\theta$. The uncertainty in the objective function means that the optimum, $x^*(\theta)$, is also a function of $\theta$. We propose an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-06 Conor McMeel , Panos Parpas

This paper is about how to partition decision variables while decomposing a large-scale optimization problem for the best performance of distributed solution methods. Solving a large-scale optimization problem sequen- tially can be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-26 Yuchen Zheng , Ilbin Lee , Nicoleta Serban

We revisit three fundamental problems in algorithms under uncertainty: the Secretary Problem, Prophet Inequality, and Stochastic Probing, each subject to general downward-closed constraints. When elements have binary values, all three…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Aviad Rubinstein , Sahil Singla