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User growth is a major strategy for consumer internet companies. To optimize costly marketing campaigns and maximize user engagement, we propose a novel treatment effect optimization methodology to enhance user growth marketing. By…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Shuyang Du , Jennifer Zhang , Will Y. Zou

Marketing is an important mechanism to increase user engagement and improve platform revenue, and heterogeneous causal learning can help develop more effective strategies. Most decision-making problems in marketing can be formulated as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Hao Zhou , Shaoming Li , Guibin Jiang , Jiaqi Zheng , Dong Wang

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

Many marketing applications, including credit card incentive programs, offer rewards to customers who exceed specific spending thresholds to encourage increased consumption. Quantifying the causal effect of these thresholds on customers is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Kohsuke Kubota , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

This study provides a formal analysis of the customer targeting problem when the cost for a marketing action depends on the customer response and proposes a framework to estimate the decision variables for campaign profit optimization.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-12 Johannes Haupt , Stefan Lessmann

Many payment platforms hold large-scale marketing campaigns, which allocate incentives to encourage users to pay through their applications. To maximize the return on investment, incentive allocations are commonly solved in a two-stage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Xuanying Chen , Zhining Liu , Li Yu , Sen Li , Lihong Gu , Xiaodong Zeng , Yize Tan , Jinjie Gu

We apply causal machine learning algorithms to assess the causal effect of a marketing intervention, namely a coupon campaign, on the sales of a retailer. Besides assessing the average impacts of different types of coupons, we also…

General Economics · Economics 2022-06-24 Henrika Langen , Martin Huber

With advances in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, firms can personalize and target individuals at a granular level. However, feasibility constraints limit full personalization. In practice, firms choose segments of individuals…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-02 Walter W. Zhang , Sanjog Misra

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xinkun Nie , Stefan Wager

Problem definition: Mining for heterogeneous responses to an intervention is a crucial step for data-driven operations, for instance to personalize treatment or pricing. We investigate how to estimate price sensitivity from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Jean Pauphilet

In the marketing field, understanding consumer heterogeneity, which is the internal or psychological difference among consumers that cannot be captured by behavioral logs, has long been a critical challenge. However, a number of consumers…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Junichiro Niimi

Targeted marketing policies target different customers with different marketing actions. While most research has focused on training targeting policies without managerial constraints, in practice, many firms face managerial constraints when…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Haihao Lu , Duncan Simester , Yuting Zhu

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become an increasingly popular task in various fields, as it helps design personalized advertisements in e-commerce or targeted treatment in biomedical studies. However, most of the existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-12 Waverly Wei , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Using big data to analyze consumer behavior can provide effective decision-making tools for preventing customer attrition (churn) in customer relationship management (CRM). Focusing on a CRM dataset with several different categories of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-14 Petra Posedel Šimović , Davor Horvatic , Edward W. Sun

Customer churn describes terminating a relationship with a business or reducing customer engagement over a specific period. Two main business marketing strategies play vital roles to increase market share dollar-value: gaining new and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-24 David Hason Rudd , Huan Huo , Guandong Xu

A simple advertising strategy that can be used to help increase sales of a product is to mail out special offers to selected potential customers. Because there is a cost associated with sending each offer, the optimal mailing strategy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 David Maxwell Chickering , David Heckerman

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect is an important task in causal inference with wide application fields. It has also attracted increasing attention from machine learning community in recent years. In this work, we reinterpret the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 Ran Chen , Hanzhong Liu

Online advertising platforms use automated auctions to connect advertisers with potential customers, requiring effective bidding strategies to maximize profits. Accurate ad impact estimation requires considering three key factors: delayed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Yuwei Cheng , Zifeng Zhao , Haifeng Xu

The causal effect of a treatment can vary from person to person based on their individual characteristics and predispositions. Mining for patterns of individual-level effect differences, a problem known as heterogeneous treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva
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