Related papers: Confinement strategies in a simple SIR model
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…
We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…
The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…
This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately…
The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…
Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lockdown is epidemiologically effective, because it eliminates…
The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters…
The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
Most infectious diseases including more than half of known human pathogens are not restricted to just one host, yet much of the mathematical modeling of infections has been limited to a single species. We investigate consequences of a…
We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school…
The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…
India was under a grave threat from the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic particularly in the beginning of May 2021. The situation appeared rather gloomy as the number of infected individuals/active cases had increased alarmingly during…
A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for describing…