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This paper provides a general technique for lower bounding the Bayes risk of statistical estimation, applicable to arbitrary loss functions and arbitrary prior distributions. A lower bound on the Bayes risk not only serves as a lower bound…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-26 Xi Chen , Adityanand Guntuboyina , Yuchen Zhang

This paper develops a flexible method for decreasing the variance of estimators for complex experiment effect metrics (e.g. ratio metrics) while retaining asymptotic unbiasedness. This method uses the auxiliary information about the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-09 Reza Hosseini , Amir Najmi

In this work, we consider a multivariate regression model with one-sided errors. We assume for the regression function to lie in a general H\"{o}lder class and estimate it via a nonparametric local polynomial approach that consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-11 Leonie Selk , Charles Tillier , Orlando Marigliano

Estimating the maximum mean finds a variety of applications in practice. In this paper, we study estimation of the maximum mean using an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach where the sampling budget is adaptively allocated to one of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-09 Zhang Kun , Liu Guangwu , Shi Wen

The presence of confounding by high-dimensional variables complicates estimation of the average effect of a point treatment. On the one hand, it necessitates the use of variable selection strategies or more general data-adaptive…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-15 Vahe Avagyan , Stijn Vansteelandt

An ever-increasing deluge of big data is becoming available to national statistical offices globally, but it is well documented that statistics produced by big data alone often suffer from selection bias and are not usually representative…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-29 Ryan Covey

Inspired by logistic regression, we introduce a regression model for data tuples consisting of a binary response and a set of covariates residing in a metric space without vector structures. Based on the proposed model we also develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-15 Yinan Lin , Zhenhua Lin

Logistic regression models for binomial responses are routinely used in statistical practice. However, the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist due to data separability. We address this issue by considering a conjugate prior penalty…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Tommaso Rigon , Emanuele Aliverti

In an influential critique of empirical practice, Freedman (2008) showed that the linear regression estimator was biased for the analysis of randomized controlled trials under the randomization model. Under Freedman's assumptions, we derive…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Haoge Chang , Joel Middleton , P. M. Aronow

Robust estimation of location is a fundamental problem in statistics, particularly in scenarios where data contamination by outliers or model misspecification is a concern. In univariate settings, methods such as the sample median and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-07 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Ricardo Fraiman , Leonardo Moreno , Gonzalo Perera

Regression adjustments are often made to experimental data. Since randomization does not justify the models, bias is likely; nor are the usual variance calculations to be trusted. Here, we evaluate regression adjustments using Neyman's…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-18 David A. Freedman

This article is a companion paper to our earlier work Miroshnikov et al. (2021) on fairness interpretability, which introduces bias explanations. In the current work, we propose a bias mitigation methodology based upon the construction of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Alexey Miroshnikov , Konstandinos Kotsiopoulos , Ryan Franks , Arjun Ravi Kannan

Many common estimators in machine learning and causal inference are linear smoothers, where the prediction is a weighted average of the training outcomes. Some estimators, such as ordinary least squares and kernel ridge regression, allow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 David Arbour , Harsh Parikh , Bijan Niknam , Elizabeth Stuart , Kara Rudolph , Avi Feller

Empirical research typically involves a robustness-efficiency tradeoff. A researcher seeking to estimate a scalar parameter can invoke strong assumptions to motivate a restricted estimator that is precise but may be heavily biased, or they…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-17 Timothy B. Armstrong , Patrick Kline , Liyang Sun

When reporting the results of clinical studies, some researchers may choose the five-number summary (including the sample median, the first and third quartiles, and the minimum and maximum values) rather than the sample mean and standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Jiandong Shi , Dehui Luo , Hong Weng , Xian-Tao Zeng , Lu Lin , Haitao Chu , Tiejun Tong

Modern machine learning datasets can have biases for certain representations that are leveraged by algorithms to achieve high performance without learning to solve the underlying task. This problem is referred to as "representation bias".…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-18 Yi Li , Nuno Vasconcelos

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Masanari Oi , Masahiro Kaneko , Ryuto Koike , Mengsay Loem , Naoaki Okazaki

A regularized risk minimization procedure for regression function estimation is introduced that achieves near optimal accuracy and confidence under general conditions, including heavy-tailed predictor and response variables. The procedure…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-30 Gábor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

The aim of this paper is to introduce and study a two-step debiasing method for variational regularization. After solving the standard variational problem, the key idea is to add a consecutive debiasing step minimizing the data fidelity on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-06-23 Eva-Maria Brinkmann , Martin Burger , Julian Rasch , Camille Sutour

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-01 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Jae Kwang Kim
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