Related papers: A Variational Expectation-Maximisation Algorithm f…
One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many…
The use of stochastic models, in effect piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP), has become increasingly popular especially for the modeling of chemical reactions and cell biophysics. Yet, exact simulation methods, for the…
We consider nonlinear mixed effects models including high-dimensional covariates to model individual parameters variability. The objective is to identify relevant covariates among a large set under sparsity assumption and to estimate model…
We consider versions of the Metropolis algorithm which avoid the inefficiency of rejections. We first illustrate that a natural Uniform Selection Algorithm might not converge to the correct distribution. We then analyse the use of Markov…
Recently-proposed particle MCMC methods provide a flexible way of performing Bayesian inference for parameters governing stochastic kinetic models defined as Markov (jump) processes (MJPs). Each iteration of the scheme requires an estimate…
Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…
State-space models (SSM) with Markov switching offer a powerful framework for detecting multiple regimes in time series, analyzing mutual dependence and dynamics within regimes, and asserting transitions between regimes. These models…
The convergence of expectation-maximization (EM)-based algorithms typically requires continuity of the likelihood function with respect to all the unknown parameters (optimization variables). The requirement is not met when parameters…
This paper presents a discrete-time nonlinear system identification method while satisfying the stability and safety properties of the system with high probability. An Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is used with a Gaussian assumption on the…
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a popular class of models suitable for solving control decision problems in probabilistic reactive systems. We consider parametric MDPs (pMDPs) that include parameters in some of the transition…
Expectation maximisation (EM) is an unsupervised learning method for estimating the parameters of a finite mixture distribution. It works by introducing "hidden" or "latent" variables via Baum's auxiliary function $Q$ that allow the joint…
This paper studies an approximation method for the log-likelihood function of a nonlinear diffusion process using the bridge of the diffusion. The main result (Theorem \refthm:approx) shows that this approximation converges uniformly to the…
Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…
Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…
We present a learning model predictive control (MPC) scheme for chance-constrained Markov jump systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are…
A new optimized extreme learning machine- (ELM-) based method for power system transient stability prediction (TSP) using synchrophasors is presented in this paper. First, the input features symbolizing the transient stability of power…
We address the problem of estimating the inputs of a dynamical system from measurements of the system's outputs. To this end, we introduce a novel estimation algorithm that explicitly trades off bias and variance to optimally reduce the…
To deal with very large datasets a mini-batch version of the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for general latent variable models is proposed. For exponential models the algorithm is shown…
We introduce Projected Latent Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PL-MCMC), a technique for sampling from the high-dimensional conditional distributions learned by a normalizing flow. We prove that a Metropolis-Hastings implementation of PL-MCMC…
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…