Related papers: A new method for life table and life expectancy ca…
In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…
Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…
Well protected human and laboratory animal populations with abundant resources are evolutionary unprecedented, and their survival far beyond reproductive age may be a byproduct rather than tool of evolution. Physical approach, which takes…
Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…
Following our previous works on the health state of a population and the related health state function we proceed in developing a method to estimate the Healthy Life Expectancy in connection to the relative impact of the Mortality Area in…
We introduce a model-agnostic procedure to construct prediction intervals for the age distribution of deaths. The age distribution of deaths is an example of constrained data, which are nonnegative and have a constrained integral. A…
A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle…
Further to the proposal and application of a stochastic methodology and the resulting first exit time distribution function to life table data we introduce a theoretical framework for the estimation of the maximum deterioration age and to…
An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can be taken place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to…
There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if any, to the human lifespan. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social…
This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy at birth in the Netherlands by based on a recent theory and a new methodology but also a classical theory of fitting and forecasting. We use the data from 1850 to 2006 provided by the Human…
The aim of this paper is to study the construction of prospective mortality tables from a low number of persons subjected to risk. The presented models are the Lee-Carter and log-Poisson methods respectively. The low number of people…
The standard methods to calculate the Total Fertility Rate require the reliable age-specific fertility rate including birth data and the related age-specific women's population data. Historically, the number of births was often not counted…
Aggregated health data such as claims data from health insurances become more and more available for research purposes. Estimates of excess mortality from prevalence and incidence of a chronic condition have only been possible for ages 50…
Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…
In epidemiology research with cancer registry data, it is often of primary interest to make inference on cancer death, not overall survival. Since cause of death is not easy to collect or is not necessarily reliable in cancer registries,…
Hundreds of millions of people live in countries that do not have complete death registration systems, meaning that most deaths are not recorded and critical quantities like life expectancy cannot be directly measured. The sibling survival…
In most of the world, causes of death are not recorded. Verbal autopsies are structured interviews with people close to the deceased, which are used to estimate the likelihood of various causes of death. Such estimates typically make use of…
Survival analysis studies and predicts the time of death, or other singular unrepeated events, based on historical data, while the true time of death for some instances is unknown. Survival trees enable the discovery of complex nonlinear…