Related papers: Short-Term Covid-19 Forecast for Latecomers
This paper has a twofold contribution. The first is a data driven approach for predicting the Covid 19 pandemic dynamics, based on data from more advanced countries. The second is to report and discuss the results obtained with this…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
COVID-19 continues to cause a significant impact on public health. To minimize this impact, policy makers undertake containment measures that however, when carried out disproportionately to the actual threat, as a result if errorneous…
While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…
The outbreak of COVID-19 i.e. a variation of coronavirus, also known as novel corona virus causing respiratory disease is a big concern worldwide since the end of December 2019. As of September 12, 2020, it has turned into an epidemic…
We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, showing its usefulness with respect to the pandemic in Portugal, from the first recorded case in the country till the end of the three states of…
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
Understanding Covid-19 lethality and its variation from country to country is essential for supporting governments in the choice of appropriate strategies. Adopting correct indicators to monitor the lethality of the infection in the course…
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 has been leading the world into a prominent crisis. As of May 19, 2020, the virus had spread to 215 countries with more than 4,622,001 confirmed cases and 311,916 reported deaths worldwide,…
After COVID-19 was first reported in China at the end of 2019, it took only a few months for this local crisis to turn into a global pandemic with unprecedented disruptions of everyday life. However, at any moment in time the situation in…
Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We…
We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the…
This technical note aims to provide a brief introduction to the projection models used by the group to project future scenarios for states and municipalities in real-time, according to the disease's behavior in previous days. However, the…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
Severe acute respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 has had a found impact on public health systems and healthcare emergency response especially with respect to making decisions on the most effective measures to be taken at any given time. As…
When the Covid-19 pandemic enters dangerous new phase, whether and when to take aggressive public health interventions to slow down the spread of COVID-19. To develop the artificial intelligence (AI) inspired methods for real-time…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
With COVID-19 affecting every country globally and changing everyday life, the ability to forecast the spread of the disease is more important than any previous epidemic. The conventional methods of disease-spread modeling, compartmental…
The current outbreak of COVID-19 has called renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analysis for monitoring mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to…