Related papers: Visual explanation of country specific differences…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has brought science to the fore of the public discourse and considering the complexity of the issues involved, with it also the challenge of effective and informative science communication. A particularly…
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…
We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…
COVID-19 is not a universal killer. We study the spread of COVID-19 at the county level for the United States up until the 15$^{th}$ of August, 2020. We show that the prevalence of the disease and the death rate are correlated with the…
Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19…
We present an interpretable high-resolution spatio-temporal model to estimate COVID-19 deaths together with confirmed cases one-week ahead of the current time, at the county-level and weekly aggregated, in the United States. A notable…
The fractal statistics were applied to the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the USA. The Hurst parameter, which indicates the long-range correlations in the growth, was calculated using a simple R/S method based on the fluctuations of the…
In this paper, it is shown that the Moyal distribution is an excelent tool to study the SARS-Cov-II (Covid-19) epidemiological associated curves and its propagation. The Moyal parameters give all the information to describe the form and the…
We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…
COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection…
In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policy makers are in a constant need for appropriate metrics and estimates in order to determine the best policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. Thus, in this paper, a compartmentalized model…
Understanding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for improved control and social distancing strategies. To that effect, we have employed the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, refined by contact tracing and…
By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration", we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were…
COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares observed with expected deaths based on the…
The spread of infectious diseases is often influenced by human mobility across different geographical regions. Although numerous studies have investigated how diseases like SARS and COVID-19 spread from China to various global locations,…
The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process),…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying…
Factors such as non-uniform definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population…
Spectral analysis characterises oscillatory time series behaviours such as cycles, but accurate estimation requires reasonable numbers of observations. Current COVID-19 time series for many countries are short: pre- and post-lockdown series…