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Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

This chapter develops a unified framework for studying misspecified learning situations in which agents optimize and update beliefs within an incorrect model of their environment. We review the statistical foundations of learning from…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-16 Ignacio Esponda , Demian Pouzo

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

When an agent cannot represent a perfectly accurate model of its environment's dynamics, model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) can fail catastrophically. Planning involves composing the predictions of the model; when flawed predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-28 Erik Talvitie

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

Bootstrapping has been a primary tool for ensemble and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and statistics. However, due to its nature of multiple training and resampling, bootstrapping deep neural networks is computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Minsuk Shin , Hyungjoo Cho , Hyun-seok Min , Sungbin Lim

Many sequential decision-making problems that are currently automated, such as those in manufacturing or recommender systems, operate in an environment where there is either little uncertainty, or zero risk of catastrophe. As companies and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Marc Rigter

We provide a framework for incorporating robustness -- to perturbations in the transition dynamics which we refer to as model misspecification -- into continuous control Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. We specifically focus on…

Planning in stochastic and partially observable environments is a central issue in artificial intelligence. One commonly used technique for solving such a problem is by constructing an accurate model firstly. Although some recent approaches…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-04-08 Yunlong Liu , Jianyang Zheng

We study tabular reinforcement learning problems with multiple steps of lookahead information. Before acting, the learner observes $\ell$ steps of future transition and reward realizations: the exact state the agent would reach and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Nadav Merlis

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

We study reinforcement learning (RL) problems in which agents observe the reward or transition realizations at their current state before deciding which action to take. Such observations are available in many applications, including…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Nadav Merlis

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to infer an agent's preferences (represented as a reward function $R$) from their behaviour (represented as a policy $\pi$). To do this, we need a behavioural model of how $\pi$ relates to $R$. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Joar Skalse , Alessandro Abate

We introduce a simple but effective method for managing risk in model-based reinforcement learning with trajectory sampling that involves probabilistic safety constraints and balancing of optimism in the face of epistemic uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Marin Vlastelica , Sebastian Blaes , Cristina Pineri , Georg Martius

Physics-based simulations and learning-based models are vital for complex robotics tasks like deformable object manipulation and liquid handling. However, these models often struggle with accuracy due to epistemic uncertainty or the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Marco Faroni , Carlo Odesco , Andrea Zanchettin , Paolo Rocco

Data driven models of dynamical systems help planners and controllers to provide more precise and accurate motions. Most model learning algorithms will try to minimize a loss function between the observed data and the model's predictions.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Clark Zhang , Santiago Paternain , Alejandro Ribeiro

Designing incentives for an adapting population is a ubiquitous problem in a wide array of economic applications and beyond. In this work, we study how to design additional rewards to steer multi-agent systems towards desired policies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jiawei Huang , Vinzenz Thoma , Zebang Shen , Heinrich H. Nax , Niao He

Motion planning under uncertainty is one of the main challenges in developing autonomous driving vehicles. In this work, we focus on the uncertainty in sensing and perception, resulted from a limited field of view, occlusions, and sensing…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Kasra Rezaee , Peyman Yadmellat , Simon Chamorro

This article addresses the challenge of adapting data-based models over time. We propose a novel two-fold modelling architecture designed to correct plant-model mismatch caused by two types of uncertainty. Out-of-domain uncertainty arises…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-17 Laura Boca de Giuli , Alessio La Bella , Riccardo Scattolini

Much of model-based reinforcement learning involves learning a model of an agent's world, and training an agent to leverage this model to perform a task more efficiently. While these models are demonstrably useful for agents, every…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-11-01 C. Daniel Freeman , Luke Metz , David Ha