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The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a critical climate phenomenon, fundamentally impacting the agriculture, economy, and water security of over a billion people. Traditional long-range forecasting, whether statistical or dynamical, has…
Scientific basis for long-lead seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) critical for water resource and crop strategy planning is lacking. Using a new predictor discovery method, here we show that the depth of 20 degree…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Importance of monsoon rainfall cannot be ignored as it affects round the year activities ranging from agriculture to industrial. Accurate rainfall estimation and prediction is very helpful in decision making in the sectors of water resource…
Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio-economic value. It represents a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained…
Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…
The challenge in predicting sub-regional climate within the Indian monsoon region is exacerbated by its increasing variability in a warming world. While exploring the seasonal predictability of rainfall over the state of Tamil Nadu in…
Accurate monsoon rainfall prediction is vital for India's agriculture, water management, and climate risk planning, yet remains challenging due to sparse ground observations and complex regional variability. We present a multimodal deep…
Long-term rainfall prediction is a challenging task especially in the modern world where we are facing the major environmental problem of global warming. In general, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear phenomena in nature exhibiting…
Advancements in remote sensing have led to development of several satellite-derived precipitation products; however, their accuracy must be evaluated before use in scientific and operational studies. This study comprehensively assesses six…
In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50…
In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network models. In formulating the Artificial Neural Network based predictive model, three layered…
Reliable prediction of the All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) is pivotal for informed policymaking for the country, impacting the lives of billions of people. However, accurate simulation of AISMR has been a persistent challenge due…
Large socio-economic impact of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather estimated low potential predictability limit (PPL) of seasonal…
Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing resources and time. Open-access AIWP models thus hold…
We analyse Indian summer monsoon (ISM) seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2 model, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), to examine the cause for highest all-India ISM rainfall…
Present study aims to develop a predictive model for the average summer monsoon rainfall amount over India. The dataset made available by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, has been explored. To develop the predictive…
The Indian summer monsoon is a highly complex and critical weather system that directly affects the livelihoods of over a billion people across the Indian subcontinent. Accurate short-term forecasting remains a major scientific challenge…
Soft Computing techniques have opened up new avenues to the forecasters of complex systems. Atmosphere is a complex system and all the atmospheric parameters carry different degrees of complexity within themselves. Endeavor of the present…
Accurate short range weather forecasting has significant implications for various sectors. Machine learning based approaches, e.g., deep learning, have gained popularity in this domain where the existing numerical weather prediction (NWP)…