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Related papers: Statistical Postprocessing for Weather Forecasts -…

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Weather forecasting is a vitally important tool for tasks ranging from planning day to day activities to disaster response planning. However, modeling weather has proven to be challenging task due to its chaotic and unpredictable nature.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-20 Lawrence Zhang , Adam Yang , Rodz Andrie Amor , Bryan Zhang , Dhruv Rao

Precipitation nowcasting, which predicts rainfall up to a few hours ahead, is a critical tool for vulnerable communities in the Global South frequently exposed to intense, rapidly developing storms. Timely forecasts provide a crucial window…

Many important problems require modelling large-scale spatio-temporal datasets, with one prevalent example being weather forecasting. Recently, transformer-based approaches have shown great promise in a range of weather forecasting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Matthew Ashman , Cristiana Diaconu , Eric Langezaal , Adrian Weller , Richard E. Turner

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Parsa Gooya , Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso

Wind energy plays a critical role in the transition towards renewable energy sources. However, the uncertainty and variability of wind can impede its full potential and the necessary growth of wind power capacity. To mitigate these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Stefan Jonas , Kevin Winter , Bernhard Brodbeck , Angela Meyer

Predicting air traffic congestion and flow management is essential for airlines and Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) to enhance operational efficiency. Accurate estimates of future airport capacity and airspace density are vital for…

Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 James Duncan , Shashank Subramanian , Peter Harrington

Recent state-of-the-art forecasting methods are trained on collections of time series. These methods, often referred to as global models, can capture common patterns in different time series to improve their generalization performance.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Vitor Cerqueira , Nuno Moniz , Ricardo Inácio , Carlos Soares

We investigate the effect of statistical post-processing on the probabilistic skill of discomfort index (DI) and indoor wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTid) ensemble forecasts, both calculated from the corresponding forecasts of temperature…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-23 Sándor Baran , Ágnes Baran , Florian Pappenberger , Zied Ben Bouallègue

It has been 100 years since statistical process control (SPC) or statistical process monitoring (SPM) was first introduced for production processes and later applied to service, healthcare, and other industries. The techniques applied to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-05 Shing I Chang , Parviz Ghafariasl

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich…

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for decision-making in domains such as weather, energy, and finance. It remains challenging because real-world sequences intertwine slow trends, multi-rate seasonalities, and irregular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Shunya Nagashima , Shuntaro Suzuki , Shuitsu Koyama , Shinnosuke Hirano

Modern technologies are generating ever-increasing amounts of data. Making use of these data requires methods that are both statistically sound and computationally efficient. Typically, the statistical and computational aspects are treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-15 Mahsa Taheri , Néhémy Lim , Johannes Lederer

The evolution of the weather can be described by deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions and/or model physics result in forecast ensembles which are used for…

Applications · Statistics 2015-07-21 Sándor Baran , András Horányi , Dóra Nemoda

Subsampling algorithms for various parametric regression models with massive data have been extensively investigated in recent years. However, all existing studies on subsampling heavily rely on clean massive data. In practical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-11 Jiangshan Ju , Mingqiu Wang , Shengli Zhao

Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale. This paper presents a pioneering approach to solar…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-14 Alberto Carpentieri , Jussi Leinonen , Jeff Adie , Boris Bonev , Doris Folini , Farah Hariri

Atmospheric processes involve both space and time. This is why human analysis of atmospheric imagery can often extract more information from animated loops of image sequences than from individual images. Automating such an analysis requires…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Akansha Singh Bansal , Yoonjin Lee , Kyle Hilburn , Imme Ebert-Uphoff

The classification of weather data involves categorizing meteorological phenomena into classes, thereby facilitating nuanced analyses and precise predictions for various sectors such as agriculture, aviation, and disaster management. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Elaheh Jafarigol , Theodore Trafalis

Motion forecasting is crucial in enabling autonomous vehicles to anticipate the future trajectories of surrounding agents. To do so, it requires solving mapping, detection, tracking, and then forecasting problems, in a multi-step pipeline.…

This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-19 Michael Koller , Johannes Feldmaier , Klaus Diepold