Related papers: Embedded model discrepancy: A case study of Zika m…
Multiple instances of Zika virus epidemic have been reported around the world in the last two decades, turning the related illness into an international concern. In this context the use of mathematical models for epidemics is of great…
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…
Background: A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an epidemic…
In many applications of interacting systems, we are only interested in the dynamic behavior of a subset of all possible active species. For example, this is true in combustion models (many transient chemical species are not of interest in a…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
We propose a new mathematical model for the spread of Zika virus. Special attention is paid to the transmission of microcephaly. Numerical simulations show the accuracy of the model with respect to the Zika outbreak occurred in Brazil.
Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and…
Mathematical models in epidemiology are an indispensable tool to determine the dynamics and important characteristics of infectious diseases. Apart from their scientific merit, these models are often used to inform political decisions and…
In this paper we study some deterministic mathematical models that seek to explain the expansion of zika virus, as a viral epidemic, using published data for Brazil. SIR type models are proposed and validated using the epidemic data found,…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, which can inform policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models.…
Supervised machine learning models and public surveillance data has been employed for infectious disease forecasting in many settings. These models leverage various data sources capturing drivers of disease spread, such as climate…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
Zika virus (ZIKV), a disease spread primarily through the Aedes aegypti mosquito, was identified in Brazil in 2015 and was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO). Epidemiologists often use common…
Accurate forecasts of disease outbreaks are critical for effective public health responses, management of healthcare surge capacity, and communication of public risk. There are a growing number of powerful forecasting methods that fall into…
In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (Zv) leading to an explosive outbreak that in just two months had over 6000 suspected cases. Many communities along with national agencies initiated the process to…
As per the records of theWorld Health Organization, the first formally reported incidence of Zika virus occurred in Brazil in May 2015. The disease then rapidly spread to other countries in Americas and East Asia, affecting more than…
Zika fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease with potential severe neurological complications and birth defects, remains a significant public health concern. The epidemiological models often oversimplify the dynamics of Zika transmission by…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…