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An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-10-31 A. V. Guglielmi

A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Marco Baiesi

We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a…

The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural,…

We have investigated the time series by the mapping them to the complex network. We have studied the behavior of the relative number of clusters in dynamic visibility graphs near the critical value of the angle of view. Time series of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2013-02-15 A. Snarskii , I. Bezsudnov

We present a new technique in order to quantify the dynamics of spatially extended systems. Using a test on the existence of unstable periodic orbits, we identify intermediate spatial scales, wherein the dynamics is characterized by maximum…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 G. Zoeller , R. Engbert , S. Hainzl , J. Kurths

Motivated by the fact that empirical time series of earthquakes exhibit long-range correlations in space and time and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of magnitudes, we propose a simple fault model that can account for these types of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-29 Marco Baiesi

In Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), every sufficiently impulsive signal is potentially the first evidence for an unfolding large earthquake. More often than not, however, impulsive signals are mere nuisance signals. One of the most…

We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-09-11 Naum I. Gershenzon , Cong Zhou , Thomas Skinner

Multivariate time series classification is an important computational task arising in applications where data is recorded over time and over multiple channels. For example, a smartwatch can record the acceleration and orientation of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Davide Italo Serramazza , Thu Trang Nguyen , Thach Le Nguyen , Georgiana Ifrim

Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-01-08 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette , Stefan Wiemer

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-10-24 Ian Baughman , John B Rundle , Tianjin Zhang

This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Cht. Mavrodiev

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…

Research into time series classification has tended to focus on the case of series of uniform length. However, it is common for real-world time series data to have unequal lengths. Differing time series lengths may arise from a number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-11 Chang Wei Tan , Francois Petitjean , Eamonn Keogh , Geoffrey I. Webb

Here we suggest a new procedure through which one can identify when the accumulation of stresses before major earthquakes (EQs) (of magnitude M 8.2 or larger) occurs. By analyzing the seismicity in the frame of natural time, which is a new…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-02-15 Panayiotis A. Varotsos , Nicholas V. Sarlis , Toshiyasu Nagao

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-23 James R Holliday , William R Graves , John B Rundle , Donald L Turcotte

This entry in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Springer present a summary of some of the concepts and calculational tools that have been developed in attempts to apply statistical physics approaches to seismology. We…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-04-22 D. Sornette , M. J. Werner

Nonlinear time series analysis is an active field of research that studies the structure of complex signals in order to derive information of the process that generated those series, for understanding, modeling and forecasting purposes. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-20 Lucas Lacasa , Raul Toral

Irregularly-sampled time series (ITS) are native to high-impact domains like healthcare, where measurements are collected over time at uneven intervals. However, for many classification problems, only small portions of long time series are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-09 Thomas Hartvigsen , Jidapa Thadajarassiri , Xiangnan Kong , Elke Rundensteiner
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