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We develop a maximum likelihood estimating approach for time-to-event Weibull regression models with outcome-dependent sampling, where sampling of subjects is dependent on the residual fraction of the time left to developing the event of…

Applications · Statistics 2014-08-01 Brian D. M. Tom , Vernon T. Farewell , Sheila M. Bird

We study the optimal decisions and equilibria of agents who aim to minimize their risks by allocating their positions over extremely heavy-tailed (i.e., infinite-mean) and possibly dependent losses. The loss distributions of our focus are…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-01 Yuyu Chen , Paul Embrechts , Ruodu Wang

In this article, we consider the estimation of unknown parameters of Weibull distribution when the lifetime data are observed in the presence of progressively type-I hybrid censoring scheme. The Newton-Raphson algorithm,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Yasin Asar , R. Arabi Belaghi

We study stochastic dominance between portfolios of independent and identically distributed (iid) extremely heavy-tailed (i.e., infinite-mean) Pareto random variables. With the notion of majorization order, we show that a more diversified…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-11 Yuyu Chen , Taizhong Hu , Ruodu Wang , Zhenfeng Zou

The hybrid censoring is a mixture of Type I and Type II censoring schemes. This paper presents the statistical inferences of the Inverse Weibull distribution when the data are Type-I hybrid censored. First we consider the maximum likelihood…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-04-07 Mohammad Kazemi , Mina Azizpour

Big data can easily be contaminated by outliers or contain variables with heavy-tailed distributions, which makes many conventional methods inadequate. To address this challenge, we propose the adaptive Huber regression for robust…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Qiang Sun , Wenxin Zhou , Jianqing Fan

This paper deals with optimally-robust parameter estimation in generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs). These arise naturally in many situations where one is interested in the behavior of extreme events as motivated by the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-17 Peter Ruckdeschel , Nataliya Horbenko

This paper is devoted to study a new three- parameters model called the Exponential Flexible Weibull extension (EFWE) distribution which exhibits bathtub-shaped hazard rate. Some of it's statistical properties are obtained including…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-27 Beih S. El-Desouky , Abdelfattah Mustafa , Shamsan AL-Garash

Our goal is to develop a Bayesian model averaging technique in linear regression models that accommodates heavier tailed error densities than the normal distribution. Motivated by the use of the Huber loss function in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Shamriddha De , Joyee Ghosh

We introduce a new class of heavy-tailed distributions for which any weighted average of independent and identically distributed random variables is larger than one such random variable in (usual) stochastic order. We show that many…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Yuyu Chen , Seva Shneer

Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-17 Anna Kiriliouk

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-26 Chiara Lattanzi , Manuele Leonelli

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 John H. J. Einmahl , Laurens de Haan , Deyuan Li

We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-23 Ion Grama , Kevin Jaunatre

We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-05 Ulrich K. Mueller

Probabilistic forecasts are typically obtained using state-of-the-art statistical and machine learning models, with model parameters estimated by optimizing a proper scoring rule over a set of training data. If the model class is not…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jakob Benjamin Wessel , Maybritt Schillinger , Frank Kwasniok , Sam Allen

Inference in extreme value theory relies on a limited number of extreme observations, making estimation challenging. To address this limitation, we propose a non-parametric simulation scheme, the multivariate extreme events spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Nisrine Madhar , Juliette Legrand , Maud Thomas

Estimating extreme quantiles is an important task in many applications, including financial risk management and climatology. More important than estimating the quantile itself is to insure zero coverage error, which implies the quantile…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-08 Douglas E. Johnston

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be some i.i.d. observations from a heavy tailed distribution $F$, i.e. such that the common distribution of the excesses over a high threshold $u_n$ can be approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-23 Julien Worms , Rym Worms

This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-19 Michael Pfarrhofer