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Geostatistics is a branch of statistics concerned with stochastic processes over continuous domains, with Gaussian processes (GPs) providing a flexible and principled modelling framework. However, the high computational cost of simulating…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-20 Flávio B. Gonçalves , Marcos O. Prates , Gareth O. Roberts

We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-10-21 Andrew Gordon Wilson , David A. Knowles , Zoubin Ghahramani

Neural Processes (NPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a,b) are a rich class of models for meta-learning that map data sets directly to predictive stochastic processes. We provide a rigorous analysis of the standard maximum-likelihood objective used to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-12 Wessel P. Bruinsma , James Requeima , Andrew Y. K. Foong , Jonathan Gordon , Richard E. Turner

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-19 Juliette Mukangango , Amanda Muyskens , Benjamin W. Priest

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used as surrogate models for emulating computer code, which simulate complex physical phenomena. In many problems, additional boundary information (i.e., the behavior of the phenomena along input…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-26 Liang Ding , Simon Mak , C. F. Jeff Wu

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a fundamental tool in Bayesian statistics. It is also known as kriging and is the Bayesian counterpart to the frequentist kernel ridge regression. Most of the theoretical work on GP regression has focused…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-27 Simon Barthelmé , Pierre-Olivier Amblard , Nicolas Tremblay , Konstantin Usevich

Learning uncertain dynamics models using Gaussian process~(GP) regression has been demonstrated to enable high-performance and safety-aware control strategies for challenging real-world applications. Yet, for computational tractability,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Manish Prajapat , Amon Lahr , Johannes Köhler , Andreas Krause , Melanie N. Zeilinger

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-03 John F. Quindlen , Ufuk Topcu , Girish Chowdhary , Jonathan P. How

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Sebastian Ament , Elizabeth Santorella , David Eriksson , Ben Letham , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

Non-conjugate Gaussian processes (NCGPs) define a flexible probabilistic framework to model categorical, ordinal and continuous data, and are widely used in practice. However, exact inference in NCGPs is prohibitively expensive for large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Lukas Tatzel , Jonathan Wenger , Frank Schneider , Philipp Hennig

One of the key challenges in revenue management is unconstraining demand data. Existing state of the art single-class unconstraining methods make restrictive assumptions about the form of the underlying demand and can perform poorly when…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-30 Ilan Price , Jaroslav Fowkes , Daniel Hopman

To enable closed form conditioning, a common assumption in Gaussian process (GP) regression is independent and identically distributed Gaussian observation noise. This strong and simplistic assumption is often violated in practice, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Matias Altamirano , François-Xavier Briol , Jeremias Knoblauch

Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Juan Maroñas , Oliver Hamelijnck , Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas

Gaussian processes have been successful in both supervised and unsupervised machine learning tasks, but their computational complexity has constrained practical applications. We introduce a new approximation for large-scale Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-03 David A. Moore , Stuart J. Russell

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-28 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…

Differential equations are important mechanistic models that are integral to many scientific and engineering applications. With the abundance of available data there has been a growing interest in data-driven physics-informed models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Oliver Hamelijnck , Arno Solin , Theodoros Damoulas

Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…

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